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Technology Stocks : Netscape -- Giant Killer or Flash in the Pan? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Backfill who wrote (2814)	4/19/1998 1:35:00 PM
From: Sonki	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4903

FOF @nscp said that the prince has been accumlating nscp(teens), spyg and some other names i forget. just like he bot appl. This ofcourse is just a rumor in the valley, i have not heard it from any valid source. (like Barrons or ML) .. btw: FOF = friend of a friend. nscp: 30m vol. thurs..up 5, 12m vol friday down 2.xx . down half as much on 1/2 the volume... what ever the rumors are you are not going to hear the facts till it's time to sell @40??? i would not buy this on any such rumors...

To: Backfill who wrote (2814)	4/19/1998 1:56:00 PM
From: Kashish King	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 4903

The first thing to consider is the frequency with which dartboard investment strategies annihilate both fundamental and technical analysts. Secondly, you can look at random distribution of performance within mutual funds managed using fundamental or technical analyses. Both methods are self-reinforcing and reactive; neither is particularly predictive. There's an underlying reason for this and it simply boils down to the massive number of constantly changing factors which determine a stock is ultimately bought or sold. It is, in fact, a massive system of nonlinear differential equations which consistently defy solution. That's something you can pick up in a JC differential equations class, it's not rocket science. Now that I've warned you about TA, you clearly can get some useful hints with which to base your trading decision on but as always the hints will be reactive, not predictive. Case in point: NSCP price rises substantially on high volume. That's a simple TA decision I would say: BUY! Gee, price declines substantially on high volume several days later. Gee, better SELL! Sounds like buy high and sell low to me. Still, had Netscape been a realistic buyout target then the TA signal would have been correct. Problem is it's not reliable and it's reactive no matter how you slice it. Look, NSCP is giving away core technology, free-stuff, in the hopes of competing above it with higher level products. It's a very risky strategy which tells me something about the state of the company given the timing. When they already had a virtual lock on the browser market that strategy would have had almost no risk. Those who think they needed the money are myopic and not particularly bright. That was a GLARING path to success for their server-based products, not to mention licensing add-ons. I'm looking for a dismal quarter and a fire sale of the company. Biggest mistake they ever made was giving control to Marc Andreessen in the first place and hiring that dufus Barksdale. The hope remains that somebody like IBM or CA is willing to pay 10X what the company is worth and that's about where this company is currently priced.