To: qdog who wrote (9976 ) 4/20/1998 2:07:00 AM From: Maurice Winn Respond to of 152472
Qdog, I meant not new inflation - just the continuing concealed "inflation" of the past 15 years wherein the overall cost of things stayed relatively constant despite a very rapid and general decline in the cost of producing those things. Prices should really be dropping heavily due to the huge reductions in the cost of calculators, computers, oil, cellphones, hairdryers, cars and nearly everything else. Maybe there is an economics word to describe what I mean - hidden inflation, currency dilution, something like that. I agree inflation is bad - I'm just predicting that governments will continue to print, maintaining a steady consumer price index [= no inflation in the conventional sense] when prices should be falling. Governments are capturing much of the benefits of the skills of the technologists. Low interest rates remain because people haven't figured it out yet. Same as it took savers decades to figure out that inflation was a certainty and they better bail out of money and buy houses, commodities, gold, anything except hold money. Now that inflation appears to be beaten [as though it is something wild that you beat rather than something deliberately created by governments] people are once again being conned into holding money as T-bonds or whatever. Bad luck for them! MightyQ is a leader in technology which is leading the way in cost reductions. They have a great balance sheet. They are in the most politically powerful country with attitudes which favour them. They'll be leading the way in the stock markets which will continue rising [with baby boomer pressure and all the other variables helping push as well as the money printing.] So Dougjn, you can see that NZ investments, which most revolve around booze, sheep, trees, tourists are not so exciting for me. My returns have vindicated my decisions. Don't you think that Dow 16000 is a worthy investment goal? New Zealand is unlucky to achieve that. Although we have lots of printing and zero inflation same as USA, it isn't reflected in the stockmarket because of continuing tax increases and a burgeoning welfare and crime population. State do-gooding has not worked out very well. Qualcomm and Globalstar are prime examples of the best of people [along with many others of course, but I have limited space in my head for understanding a range of companies]. Tom, gurgler is the euphemistic version of dunny I suppose. Though I've never actually heard a translation. Joseph, you said: "But since at this time, China benefits so much more from the trade with the US, than the other way around, US has some leverage." I disagree with that one. China is sending the USA [and New Zealand] heaps of goods. If they don't buy anything in return, that's fine! We don't have to go to work. When they do finally present the cheque, then it will be time to go to work. If they hold US$ which are being photocopied by US government, then they are losing money all the time they hold them. A bit like if Qualcomm starts printing shares flat out and giving them out to their pals, it dilutes the shareholders. If Qualcomm is making heaps of money, then the shareholders wouldn't even notice and would still think things were fine. Same as US$ holders think things are fine. Well, that's the way it is today as far as I can tell. Maurice