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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (16892)	4/20/1998 2:20:00 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill !!!; Hot digitydog..got my spike early..glad I'm mostly a small cap bottom fishen fool...EVERY ONE OF MY PICKS SPIKED, and I have closed shop for the day..100% Money Market now... Baaaaahhhaaaa...do I feel good yeas ! :-) ---------------------- She headed south now..except for the big teckies..they holding gains for now...BUT THE DOW MEGA 10 droping faster than the tail if not for MRK IBM & DIS being up the DOW would be in bad shape. I don't buy the DOW stocks , thinking over the DIA web basket, but after she corrects.. ----------------------------------- LOOK at todays daily chart...of the mix I look at quote.yahoo.com ------------------ Note how the russel2000 climbed..while the S&P 100 fell; at first the S&P500 was slow to fall..in fact early on she flew in the face of the futures ( onec again )..but as the S&P100 fell it draged her down.. The NYS Composit was up..but that was smaller caps supporting her.. ----------------------- Now it's OK for the small caps to gain or even outrun the BIG caps for a while..BUT like the DOW MEGA/TAIL...the small caps can not support the market for long, no more than the 21 in the Tail of the DOW can support her..so while they may out run the big caps when they are going strong in opposite directions something is about to change ! ---------------------------- How long the Nasdaq will last going up against the S&P falling I don't know..most of the loss in the S&P is in the Big caps.. and that makes the ice thin... The NAZ100 and the S&P100 are diverging like crazy..and I don't think the techs can turn the tide..but will soon turn and follow the S&P down..but this remains to be seen. For sure the Small caps can not support the market in face of the big caps selling off.. -------------------------------- SO RE> I will want to know how he or she does it, not what the forecast is. << I'm the same way, that's why I go to the troble of giving the details of what I see..and talking about the Mega/Tail effect. --------------------- Your Visual Invester is a good book.., but John was some what short sighted in his idea that TA contains all the FA.. It may contain most of it..( on indivdual stocks )..it can't account for a changing ( unknown float ) on them..that's why you have to watch the short interest if it changes. The volume may look big and not be so, as much of it can be just ghost volume on shares that don't really exist..heavy shorted stocks just don't always fit into TA patterns..an INDEX does not always fit..the broader the INDEX cap wise, the less it works..but weighted ones work better than non weighted ones. Checking the S&P100 aginst the 500 will at times like today show you the way the 500 will trend "if the move of the 100 is as strong as it was early today" -------------------- I got out OK , had to trim a 1/8pt off my ask on SGI to move it, but that still left me with a small profit..all the rest went at my early morning targets. ---------------------- The ice is thin, see a dip coming..but we will not get any BK unless the S&P takes out it's support around the 1092 level and I don't see that real soon..or long term interest rates must go up to better than 6% to trigger any BK..but I see a dip, coming and if interest rates stay down..I'll be buying on it. ------------------------- Right now 100% MM..and bonds, and I can relax <G> I've hammered the equity side of my portfolio up nicely since FEB 1st..could have done a little better maybe if I had not tried to dodge so many bullets..that never really came. Jim