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To: Hollywood who wrote (13301)	4/20/1998 10:05:00 PM
From: Andrew Vance	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 17305

AV--Sorry but I was in flight today so I missed all the fun. I do not think I could afford the costs of trading via sky phoned at 35,000 feet in the air.<GGG> However, just some quick updates since I am tired and have jet lag. ADPT-I wish I had sold ALL my ADPT and put it into SYNT awhile back. Good call on the part of Judy a few weeks back. I have a position in ADPT and will probably add more AFTER earnings release. I do not think we will like the earnings here so the long shares have had calls written against it along with a few puts bought, just in case. We still have yet to see the costs associated with the Symbios takeover since it has not been approved and concluded yet. Furthermore, there are 2 additional acquisitions since then and one announced layoff. ATMI-nice 5 point bounce in less than 2 weeks (28-33) for a handy 15% gain for those paying attention. ADI-you just gotta be happy if you were playing this one with me. I will be bailing out tomorrow with close to 8 points as it broke through 38 today. To bad I didn't have more.(Boo-Hoo) This is not a sell signal buy rather a "you are on your own" statement. Let greed be your guide. As for me, well, a stop limit of 32 is in place and will be raised $1 for every $1 it rises. UTEK-I do not even want to discuss this anymore. Sold a bunch of it in the high 22s to cover Income taxes and now it decides to do this. Those invested are on their own but it was a good pop today. NVLS-rsing from the dead and is a core enabling stock that has room to grow even further. NVLS is out performing AMAT so watch out. I expect AMAT to retaliate with a n9ice run up of its own. ASYT-been real lqckluster lately and may not spark to life for a little while. However, it is not worth risking missing the run up when it occurs. This is like a rubber band plane all wound up (even over-wound) waiting to be released for a great flight. CFMT-at this price, it is a good buy or average down. For me, it is an average down. Another enabling technology just poised for a good turn of events. This stock gets clobbered when 1 or 2 systems are pushed out from a quarter or when there are 1 or 2 cancelaations. CFMT is very Asian sensitive, IMO. However, when the Asian turn around occurs, this may bounce back beautifully. Furthermore, with Yeildup as it major competitor for similar product, I would say that both companies are prime takeover candidates by some of the majors. TAKEOVERS-This might be a great time for this intermission message. July is just around the corner which means SEMICON WEST. This would be an appropriate time to announce some really nice consolidations within the industry. We have low prices, An Asian Crisis, uncertainty in the sector, and a number of companies that have the for sale sign out. All make for a ripe time to pick up some great bargains, enabling technologies, or good technology fits. Back to CFMT-an enabling cleaning technology that WILL be required WHEN (not if) we get this mini tech recession behind us. Very good addition to the likes of a few of the majors. LRCX-look at this baby move recently. I would not be surprised if this is one of the first companies to fall under the consolidation umbrella. IMO they have a HUGE "FOR SALE" sign hanging out for potential suitors, even if it looks subtle. GGNS-no longer a takeover candidate. Instead, they sold their MeV technology to Varian for a paltry sum. This leaves the CVD technology remaining. This CVD technology, if memory serves me correct, it the technology they were trying to transition away from as they grew there MeV business. GGNS in my opinion will never be a dominate player in CVD. Furthermore, to "part" out the company is not a great stroke of genius. To me it means that there was very little interest in the CVD business by Varian. Not enough to take over the company as a whole and then either run with the CVD or sell it off to another company for its patents or technology. They saw no real worth to doing that, IMO. This means that GGNS is no longer in my universe. ETN-I haven't spoken in great detail about Eaton Corporation before but they are a mega-Company who might just want to expand their semiconductor business. Like General Signal of the past, ETN has the $$$ to go shopping for "distressed sales" or great "price bargains". I see ETN as a buyer over the next few quarters or as a consolidator of some of the smaller "at risk" companies. AGAI-MTSN-SUBM-I am real concerned about these guys. I see very little strength for them in the ensuing months and quarters. As much as I would like to see them prosper, I think they might have a new "logo" in their futures (by year end). I do know of a certain company that might be shopping for a wet bench cleaning company like SUBM, which makes them a nice target at its current prices. AGAI and MTSN may be at risk the longer the Asian Crisis persists. IPEC-SFAM-you can kiss one of these babies good bye within the next few months. The water on my knee is just aching over these two companies. I will go out on a limb and state that the likes of NVLS could actually go after one of these guys along with coming to terms with LRCX in a similar move by NVLS. This would make NVLS a formidable competitor to "Big Bad AMAT". This is "Vance on the Limb #1" for 1998.<GGG> CYMI-The rubber band is so tight I do not know why the plane hasn't taken off on an around the world journey. This is the #1 Enabling technology of the next 6 months to 2 years and beyond. As great as CMP will be down the road, you really need the feature sizes to be printed first before the attributes of CMP can be fully appreciated. IDTI-Gee eveyone, it seems that the IDTI WinChip is starting to be recognized as the superior performing low end chip when compared to INTC's. Slowly but surely you can and will reap the rewards of this little gem of a stock. KLAC-just remember, under $40 is a good buy for this stock and should be accumulated there for the long term. This will be a nifty 50 stock or better. Make no mistake about that. A 25% gainer is almost assured if you are invested below $40 on any retracement and hold for the targeted return on your investment. AEIS-at $15 this is getting very close to a great buy in for the long term. When AMAT, LRCX and NVLS start their monumental moves up due to increased customer deliveries of equipment and after the Asian Crisis is behind this sector, this critical component supplier will take off once again. Target is at least $25-$30 for a whopping 66%-100% return on investment. This isn't even reaching their 52 week high of $38 during the "good times". NANX-sorry for the delay everyone but those in at around $6 are looking mighty fine right now. Sell at this point??? NO - I think I want the greed monster to overpower the little conservative birdie on my shoulder. I want to see $9-$10 before bailing out. PAIR-poor PAIR, the misunderstood xDSL company. I gotta have someone explain this one to me. Colorado is about to roll out xDSL technology for improved internet access. Great package deal that allows 256K or 512K sppeds over existing copper lines. Right up the PAIR alley along with Adtran and Westrell. Gotta love it for the longer term. WCII- was recommended very highly in the 44-45 range but I did not nibble. At these lower prices it is getting too good to resist. PRIA-What can I say other than people here have made money on the stock and have played this roller coaster a few times. Today was a nice run up once again. I think we may see the 28s again to complete yet another cycle of this roller coaster. Admittedly, I did notr get off (sell) the last time, but I will not be so foolish this time. QCOM-Golly gee guys and gals, this baby was sub 50 and now closing in on $60. Too pricey to get into right now but wait for the next retracement. They still are affected by the Asian Flu so it may be susceptible to one more reracement before really taking off. TER-not one of my favorites on this list today but is very worthy of notation. This is a great bargain under $40 and should be accorded some serious consideration. UTEK-#^@^&#@%!* (see above) WFR-Tell you what to do here. Buy some LEAPS for 2000 or as far out as you can go at 17.5 or 20, your choice. Forget that it exists, sort of like buying the Irsh Sweepstakes ticket. WD-don't be fooled yet even with today's nice pop. I have no indicators to lead me to believe the Disk sector is out of its doldrums. The top 10 Vance list for 1998 is amongst the group listed above. This post represents a "saved bookmark" that should be used to judge my performance over the next 3 quarters. The $1 million portfolio was my report card for first quarter<GGG>. Then again, both can be used as a 2x4 to smack me senseless<GGG> HOT IPOs - ZD ARMHY and Capstar Andrew