To: current trend who wrote (610 ) 4/21/1998 7:00:00 PM From: current trend Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 3458
I would revisit the auto stocks as they are starting to beat estimates and I think the auto-cycle is vibrant -- by Joe Battipaglia, Chairman of Investment Policy 4/13/98 In light of the raging bull market, the end of the 1Q98 economy has led us to solid growth in GDP, greater job creation and greater expansion of corporate profits. However, I would argue that the critical element is the longevity of profit growth versus the vigor of profit growth. Whether profits expand 8%, 9%, or even 12% sequentially, the essential element is it continues to expand which will allow the market to hold its ground where it is today and possibly advance further. We have more information about the vitality of investors and their appetite. We had record flow of mutual fund money in the month of March and since the majority of fund managers buy equities, this should continue to push the market higher. Additionally, this bull market has been a U.S. led investment frenzy. Foreign investment has been slow to react to the robust U.S. market, where up until 1997, foreigners have been net-liquidators of U.S. equities. It is estimated that non-domestic investors own approximately 7% of U.S. equities. Keep in mind that this under-investing in the U.S. is at a time when our economy is the world's biggest, fastest growing as well as the strongest currency. I believe there is more foreign investment coming into the U.S. and very soon. Moving forward, I would like to draw your attention to housing stocks, retailers and the manufacturers of durable goods. It seems that these sectors will have an explosive growth frontier ahead. Additionally, I would revisit the auto stocks as they are starting to beat estimates and I think the auto-cycle is vibrant given the background of the consumer in the U.S. economy. Bottom line, the bullish scenario prevails, the market goes higher and more money will be invested from overseas as well as domestically. I believe that small and mid-cap names will offer investors steady upside from these levels and provide the real action in the market. The NASDAQ and Russell 2000 should increase approximately 20% from current levels by year-end versus another 10% or so on the Dow. This report is only a summary of research reports published by Gruntal & Co., L.L.C. CT