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Technology Stocks : Citrix Systems (CTXS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: David Lawrence who wrote (5481)	4/20/1998 3:24:00 PM
From: Muthusamy SELVARAJU	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 9068

As a long-time (and mostly suffering too) bull on the stock, I'll be very disappointed if their revenues came in significantly shy of $50m and their PAT % at less than 33.3%. Simple arithmetics leads one to believe that that will generate an EPS of approx. $0.36-.38c. Of course, this is before the previously announced P&L hits due to acquisitions (EPiCON, Insignia). IMHO, I'd hope that they ""guide"" analysts to a $2.00 EPS for the FY, which should lead to a nice upward bump in the price, albeit tomorrow or in the days ahead. In that scenario, we should 'worship' Art Samburg who said in January in Barrons, that he doesn't know why he backs this company all the way at that point in time, even though with their 290 people, a one product portfolio, he still puts his 'faith'. That's the sentiment I've religiously followed in the last 3 months....BTW, Art Samburg, also bet on Cendant, which is in the dog-house right now. If they fall short of this, I'd speculate on several worse-case scenarios, which do not exclude: 1) New Moon FUD/vaporware, 2) Microsoft taking the 'elixir' away from CTXS under the new WTS pricing formula, which at the end of the day cannot exceed the old Winframe per user pricing. (If this happens, the elixir will be just worth a quick cocktail for MSFT, given their size vs. CTXS!, and what I forecast will be a bumper harvest for MSFT on April 22nd). 3) CTXS' position vs. the whole assortment of Java vendors, who could well be winning the strategic turf long-term. 4) Finally, the number one should also probe carefully is the amount of deferred revenue that CTXS has 'buried' in their Balance Sheet....after all, they do not have Mr. Micheal Brown (ex-MSFT CFO) on their board for nothing!! He has developed this to a 'black' art. I realise my expectations are high on CTXS, but I put my cards on the table for this quarter, in the full expectation that this is the 'best case' scenario for CTXS best quarter under the old Winframe scenario. As for the 'brave new world' of WTS and MetaFrame, we'll just have to listen in to the Chairman's remarks on the conference call. My big 'relief' is that I have only a 2 hour wait for CTXS' Aldous Huxley'. For all keepers of faith on CTXS, very best of luck this evening. Regards, p.s. BTW, does anyone know what was the real reason for the name change from pICAsso to MetaFrame? I'm not unhappy that they did it, since the old man did have a controversial past, unless you were a Latin yourself, and believed that everything cubic was good!!!