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Technology Stocks : DELL Bear Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jjs_ynot who wrote (505)	4/20/1998 4:46:00 PM
From: Ally	Respond to of 2578

Dave: I think it depends on whether the pc sales slow-down continues when Dell reports earnings next month. If further reports come out showing that high end pc demand continues to slow down to (a) priority given to Y2K fixing, (b) continuing weak Asian deman (c) $500 pcs sufficient for corporate terminal needs and then compound to the weak demand environment, the supply side can produce as much pcs as demand wants, and more (commodity)... given this scenario, even if Dell meets earnings expectation this quarter... the second quarter will be tough, and Dell would have to warn. All the plant expansion only increase the probability of slower earnings. I have a 85% confidence level that the weakness in the pc environment will invariably affects Dell's growth. Of course, can't prove this to any scientific degree... it is just a business assessment given the present and near term climate pf pc industry.