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Technology Stocks : Winstar Comm. (WCII) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: joel chess who wrote (5324)	4/20/1998 7:06:00 PM
From: SteveG	Respond to of 12468

Governali's DCF numbers are known to be underestimated. Here is a recent update, though by no means, a DCF re-compute. Look for this after earnings in May. BTW, Comfort's and Reagan's recent concerns was this recent lines installed number. WCII includes ALL lines (both on-net and off-net, including new ISP or LD customers) in this number. Most analysts knew and have factored this in. Apparently it was surprising to Comfort and Reagan (who seemingly weren't paying close enough attention). The important DCF models stand. Governali from last week: WinStar (WCII) - Maintain Buy: First Quarter Line Growth Exceeds Expectations. WinStar gave a sneak peek at its first quarter CLEC results last week, reporting stronger than expected line installations. The total number of lines added was 41,000, representing sequential growth of about 35%. This compares to our estimate for 39,000 line adds and sequential growth last quarter of 49%. Line orders in the quarter reached 55,000, implying a provisioning rate of 74.5%. We expect that these results should enable WinStar to beat our previous CLEC revenue estimate of $30.7 million by about $1-2 million. We are maintaining our EBITDA and earnings per share estimates for the first quarter of losses of $49.1 million and $2.78 respectively. The acquisitions of PacNet and GoodNet add another 24,500 lines, bringing WinStar's total installed wireline and wireless lines to about 145,000. Cumulative line orders totaled about 200,000, creating a backlog of about 55,000 lines. Going forward the company will report its landline data lines acquired through PacNet and GoodNet combined with its traditional lines. At the end of the first quarter WinStar should have had 19 installed switches and 13 operating switches, meaning it should be able to move a larger portion of its access lines "on-net." We are targeting a quarterly five percentage-point improvement in terms of moving lines on-net and we estimate that by the end of the quarter, about 20% of Win-Star's access lines will be on-net. For WinStar, on-net means connected to its switch while the building is also connected to the WinStar network through its own wireless equipment. Our EBITDA targets for the full years 1998 and 1999, are losses of $183.2 million and $57.4 million, respectively. Our EPS estimates are for losses $12.55 in 1998, and $11.70 in 1999. We maintain our Buy rating on the stock.