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Technology Stocks : BAY Ntwks (under House) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Fine who wrote (5461)	4/20/1998 7:03:00 PM
From: WiseGuy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6980

I would not be too concerned about DLJ. He seems to be frustrated at his own inability to predict Bay. In the past few quarters, he has always been negative on Bay while Bay kept outperform expectations. Then, when he finally adopted Bay by upgrading it in March, Bay fell through the hole.

To: Paul Fine who wrote (5461)	4/21/1998 7:02:00 AM
From: rupert1	Respond to of 6980

Paul: I have followed and appreciated your postings for some time. I think your growing concerns about BAY are well-founded. Lately you have been fighting your concerns with optimism that BAY would sooner rather than later produce better results. I think the recent miscalculations about results by management are a serious new factor. This quarter is crucial. Will the market sustain the price or improve the price until the projected revenues are demonstrated? Possibly. Can the price see appreciable increase on indications of good sales sometime in May? Possibly. Will the company blindside the market in May or early June with a warning? Possibly. We all have to put a risk-reward factors on these possibilities. I could well understand the argument that it is worth holding from $23 to $25 or $27, at least to recover a sizeable percentage increase. But I think it is also rational to argue that the price could move to $21 or $19 before that, for a sizeable percentage decrease. Beyond these movements one could argue rationally, on the basis of information available and depending on future results in this quarter, for moves to $17 or to $32. The possibility of a takeover is also attractive. I have decided that I will forego the immediate possibility of a move above $23 and have sold my entire holding in that range. If better quality information becomes available I might re-purchase at or above $23. I would also re-purchase if the price falls 10% or more below $23, as long as the information supported a re-purchase and as long as my funds are not better committed elsewhere. In general, I think safer profits can be made with sector leaders, which are liquid, better researched by brokerage houses, and which are not so susceptible to 20% plus swings to the downside. I shall continue to lurk on this thread but doubt that I will post again unless I make a sizeable re-purchase. I have enjoyed the communication and wish everyone good luck. Victor