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Technology Stocks : Y2K (Year 2000) Personal Contingency Planning -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: paul e thomas who wrote (155)	4/20/1998 9:00:00 PM
From: C.K. Houston	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 888

Paul, < I am trying to maximize any financial gain from the positive aspects from a Y2K investors point of view. I am currently building plans around an assumption the market will crash once Greenspan tells Congress they had better be prepared for significant adverse economic consequences.I belive this may in the August 99 Humprhey Hawkins testimony.> I'll probably get out of the market earlier than you. I'm going to closely monitor media Y2K coverage. Right now, it's mostly people on the net who understand what's going on. And even then, it's a relatively small group. But, it's changing pretty fast. I didn't expect the strong FORTUNE, Forbes and Business Week articles. I've resigned myself to HUGE capital gains taxes. I'll be selling about half my portfolio by early October. You know I don't like fourth quarters anyway! I'll be taking some of that money to apply towards a new home, gold, silver, straight-cash, taxes, food ... yeah ... I'm gonna start stockpiling. I'm pretty much planning on being out of the market by April 1999. In my case, I'd rather be safe than sorry. So, I'm not projecting out as far as you. To me the key is going to be media coverage. How heightened it becomes. How it's handled. If the perception of government, bank, market failure is there ... bank runs could occur. All it takes is perception of failure. I personally feel bank runs will occur ... the question is ... when? Cheryl

To: paul e thomas who wrote (155)	4/22/1998 7:26:00 AM
From: R. Bond	Respond to of 888

Paul, Careful not to confine your viewpoint to the United States. I feel that it is likely that the stimulus for a 'panic' in the U.S. may very well come from abroad. For example, considering the present economic state of S.E. Asia and the cultural traits of the population: Something like a run on banks or civil unrest due to currency problems/recession is more likely to flare up there first, rather than in the comfort zone of the U.S. Especially considering the fact that U.S. investors have been totally educated to believe that the safest thing to do is leave their money in the market. "It will come back eventually," you know. Investors elsewhere are not necessarily so inclined. Such events would certainly shake the market. I agree with C.K. that hype is a primary factor in this play. As it grows, the possibility of another factor joining with it to push things a bit too far will increase; a currency crisis for example. One should be ever more vigilant in keeping up with world affairs has the hype control keeps cranking up. My take on a market dive is this: the insiders (specialist/exchange members/market makers, etc.) will not resist the temptation to make huge profits by continuing to run the market up much farther than the present level (this may include an intermediate correction) and then cashing in on their shorts with a millenium crash. However if the global public/investors really panic heavily, things could get out of control, thereby causing certain hardship for some of the people of this world. Of course, those previously mentioned are not concerned with that, they just want our money. I can't attempt to predict when. I'll be keeping as close an eye on the charts/gold price/oil price as everything else. You can read the online papers of S.E. Asia here: newslink.org. You may be surprised at what you have not seen in the Western press as well as the pressing issues of the day on the other side of the world. Plus you can try to get somewhat of a 'feel' for things. Concerning gold: I'm considering buying some. But I think that in the intial stages of a gold run I could conceivably make more profits in the stocks, transferring to the real thing when the run pauses. I can buy a lot more shares somewhere between $6 and $40 than I can ounces from $310 up. But what do I know? Maybe it will just be one big shakeout and that's it. I hope so. Good luck, Bond

To: paul e thomas who wrote (155)	4/23/1998 10:55:00 AM
From: R. Bond	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 888

Paul, I now know that you are globally aware. Check out this from the Dow Jones Wire yesterday: April 22, 1998 Unaware Asia Heading Toward Y2K Crisis, U.N. Agency Warns ----- Dow Jones Newswires BANGKOK (AP)--Asian countries are generally unaware and taking little action to avert a computer meltdown in the year 2000 when the Y2K crisis hits, a U.N. agency warned Wednesday. The U.N. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, as part of its 54th Commission Session ending Wednesday, said much of Asia is muddling toward disaster. 'It's not a deadline that can be avoided,' said Andrew J. Flatt, director of ESCAP's statistics division. 'Yet apart from Australia and to a lesser extent Japan, it's something that people are only now waking up to.' The Y2K crisis will strike in the Year 2000, when the failure by the computer industry to account for the millennium change will suddenly result in software incapable of digesting the new dates and, in worst-case scenarios, going haywire. Some of the officials from the 41 countries gathered at ESCAP over the past week raised the problem in discussions on the social impact of Asia's economic crisis. Flatt said it gradually dawned on them that few of their governments have gotten to grips with the issue. Many appear to be hoping the U.S. and Europe will come up with solutions that can be applied in Asia. That could be waiting too long, Flatt said. Top government officials need to get on top of the problem now, because sorting out the mess will take time and money and cannot start at the last minute. Fixing the bug in Asia could cost $500 million, based on programmer hours and getting new computer equipment, he said. Those at greatest risk wouldn't be more developed countries like Japan or Australia, or virtually computer-less ones like Bhutan or Laos, but those somewhere in between like Thailand. These are countries that have rapidly computerized in the past few years but wouldn't have the resources in programmers - or money since the Asian economic crisis - to stamp out Y2K problems. Copyright c 1998 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved.