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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: goldsnow who wrote (10268)	4/21/1998 12:02:00 AM
From: Eashoa' M'sheekha	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 116815

Bulls v. Bears Stock climb makes bulls scarce Monday, April 20, 1998 By Stephen Northfield Stocks are heading into the ozone and the bulls are getting lonelier by the minute, according to The Globe and Mail's latest Bulls v. Bears survey. The record-smashing tear by Canadian and U.S. stock markets may be doing wonders for investors' portfolios, but it's doing nothing for the mood of respondents to the survey, who seem to get gloomier with each uptick in stock prices. Now, just 31 per cent of market professionals expect the Toronto Stock Exchange 300 stock composite index to close higher six months from now, a record low since the survey was launched in June, 1996. That's down from 41 per cent in the previous survey. It's only the third time that TSE bears have outnumbered bulls in the survey's history. Meanwhile, those expecting the TSE to head lower held steady at 48 per cent. The view on the U.S. market was no better. A paltry 28 per cent of our market professionals expect the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index to be higher in six months, a few pegs down from the 38 per cent recorded in the previous survey. The bear camp held steady at about 52 per cent. So what's the source of all this pessimism? Skyrocketing markets, what else? Respondents seem to believe that the good times can't last. The Dow Jones industrial average blew through 9,000 a couple of weeks ago, while the TSE 300 burrows its way deeper into the record books. So far this year the TSE 300 has advanced 15.9 per cent -- more than many market watchers were forecasting for the entire year -- while the S&P 500 has gained 15.7 per cent. What the survey's increasing bearishness means is open to interpretation. If our respondents are right, the markets are in for a rough patch. If, as many market professionals believe, that sentiment surveys are contrary indicators, then the caution signalled by the survey is a good sign. The respondents were no less grumpy about Canadian bonds. Those expecting bond prices to be higher in six months plunged to 26 per cent from 44 per cent in the last survey, while the bears edged up to 33 per cent from 30 per cent. The deterioration in the outlook for bonds comes as the prices have edged modestly lower after hitting highs about two weeks ago. The only thing that market professionals seem to be able to muster any enthusiasm for is gold, which has been able to cling tenuously to recent gains. A robust 62 per cent of respondents expect bullion prices to be higher in six months, a sharp jump from the 42 per cent recorded in the previous survey. It's also the highest level of bullishness over gold since last August. The percentage of bears slipped to 12 per cent from 19 per cent, the lowest reading for bullion bears since last June. Gold prices have managed some modest gains in recent weeks, breaking through the $300 (U.S.) an ounce barrier in late March and hanging tough since. Bullion prices actually topped $310 briefly last week, easing back to close Friday at $307.60. Growing confidence that the proposed European central bank will hold a larger-than-expected amount of gold as part of its central reserves has fuelled the recovery in recent weeks. The deteriorating economic situation in Japan has also prompted some jittery investors to move some assets into gold, traditionally a hedge in times of turmoil. Bulls v. Bears is a proprietary survey developed by The Globe and Mail as an indicator of the sentiment of market professionals. The investment pros fight it out Every two weeks we survey money managers, strategists and advisers on where they expect financial markets to be in six months -- up, down or unchanged. Here is what they think this week. % Bullish % Bearish* TSE 300 31% 48% S&P 500 28% 52% Bond prices 26% 33% Gold 62% 12% * The rest are neutral