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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (7452)	4/20/1998 10:02:00 PM
From: Mama Bear	Respond to of 18691

Better yet Roger, MARG almost tripled today on the rerelease of 7 month old news. I am selling another slug of my long term longs tomorrow. Barb

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (7452)	4/20/1998 10:05:00 PM
From: Investor-ex!	Respond to of 18691

Roger, Yeah, lots of companies are behaving this way right now. The example that caught my eye was KO. They're even currently projected to have negative year-over-year growth for this ENTIRE calendar year, yet KO trades higher. With many companies this quarter, part of the explanation is that the earnings targets at the beginning of the quarter have been gradually lowered again and again until the company "beats" that darn number! Who actually places any credence in this charade is beyond me, but at least you've got to give them credit for going through the motions. :o) 'Expectations' are that quarters 3 and 4 will be super-duper. If you check First Call, this is the case with IBM as well. In fact the further out you go, the more optimistic the numbers. IBM earnings estimates: 1997 Q1 1.16 vs. 1998 Q1 1.05 : chg% -9 1997 Q2 1.43 vs. 1998 Q2 1.55 : chg% +8 1997 Q3 1.35 vs. 1998 Q3 1.53 : chg% +13 1997 Q4 2.11 vs. 1998 Q4 2.41 : chg% +14 Source: First Call Excluding the first quarter, will IBM make any of these forward numbers as they now stand? A rhetorical question in this market! Note that the current street talk doesn't even include the current quarter. Want to bet that if quarter two really stinks, then the talk will be that 4th quarter '98 and first quarter '99 will be just swell? Such is the nature of a bull that doesn't want to end (or more likely, safely can't end without a horrendous crash). That said, there's at least one mitigating factor in IBM's favor that doesn't apply to your average stock in the new age. IBM really is something of a blue-chip Y2K play that will actually make a pile of money come what may, up to and through 2000. Whether the bulk of that revenue has already been booked, I can't say.

To: Roger A. Babb who wrote (7452)	4/20/1998 10:10:00 PM
From: CatLady	Respond to of 18691

Roger, IBM is is an Internet company! Of course it goes up. CatLady