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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Death Sphincter who wrote (16968)	4/21/1998 7:32:00 AM
From: William H Huebl	Respond to of 94695

Carl, Thanks for the kudos (I think). Be careful of making the assumptions about BTDsters! One of the things I have noticed is that they tend to wait until the move down is over... kinda hanging back. And you can see in the past that the money flows have changed dramatically and thus affected the markets. The danger in thinking the BTDsters will always be there is that when the AREN'T there, the bottom drops out. When will that happen? When will the mentality change? Well I think we attribute too much to lemming-like mentality - I for one have espoused such a position in the past. HOWEVER, there are enough astute investors in this market to pull it down. What do I see as the scenario for the end of this market? Well key to that end is the magnitude of the investment itself and the money flows. At first, 5 billion per week drove and drove the markets like nobodies business! After 3 (or is it 5) years, the money IN the market from this source is at the trillion dollar level. So if 95% of the people who are investing this way keep doing it but 5% take their money out IN ONE WEEK... Money in = .95 x 5.0 = 4.75 Billion Money out = .05 x 1000 = 50 Billion Which way do YOU think the markets will head? Talk about yelling FIRE in a crowded theatre??? Scenario... 1. Market peaks 2. Pullback occurs 3. Attempt to gain new highs 4. Feds increase interest rates 5. 5% of existing investors go to money markets etc 6. Market tumbles. 7. Market struggles to return 8. Market sells off 9. Another 5% opt for greener pastures - etc, etc, etc Bill