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Strategies & Market Trends : APMP (formerly APM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Rudy who wrote (10795)	4/21/1998 4:47:00 AM
From: Rudy	Respond to of 13456

Correction: holding KEG from 36 to 16's... eom...

To: Rudy who wrote (10795)	4/21/1998 8:51:00 AM
From: Wayners	Respond to of 13456

Although you don't say in your post, the real lesson was no matter what the P/E is on past earnings and no matter what the brokerage recommendations are (i.e. 4 strong buys) and no matter what the analysts have down as their earnings estimates---when the chart starts looking sick (i.e. the trend starts turning into a downtrend and you can visible see slightly lower lows and slightly lower highs), it is time to bail out. While I seemed in hindsight to be fortunate to get out at $25, I can remember looking at a chart of it when it was $35 and I had just bought more shares at $36---and I knew that $35 was going to be a short term top for at least the next 2 weeks (turned out to be the last chance to exit close to $36 since) I still didn't sell out. I could see the downtrend in front of me and didn't act. Why? because I was looking for $40 plus and thought I'd just ride out the next dip for a week or so. By a week or so later it was in low $30s and I didn't want to take a loss on those additional shares. It was a good learning experience. I now look for stocks showing the same characteristics APM showed at $35 to go short on. A very valuable lesson.

To: Rudy who wrote (10795)	4/21/1998 8:51:00 AM
From: tom pope	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 13456

You're absolutely right about drawing lessons from our errors, and I guess we'd all be a little shamed at reading what we wrote when we were expecting the mother of all short squeezes. But there was one element in the disaster last fall that trapped many of us, and that was that Crisman either misled callers about the order book, the prospects for TFI and MR development, or he was misquoted. With such bad info, it's not surprising that many of us were blindsided. BTW, Rudy, if I remember correctly, you were cautious from about the mid-thirties, weren't you?