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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (16974)	4/21/1998 7:01:00 AM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, it seems that Germany is signaling rate increases. DM is up vs. the $. European markets are down as a result. Germany just released a long awaited pickup in demand. Haim

To: William H Huebl who wrote (16974)	4/21/1998 8:38:00 AM
From: Barbara Barry	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, I do not remember the last time rates moved 1/2 pt.Wallstreet has been conditioned to tollerate,more or less, a 1/4 move.IMHO a 1/2point move would really spook the market.Maybe someone on your thread can help me understand some basic economic principals????What would that sort of rate hike do to the dollar and foreign investments?With earnings slowing and the Asian crisis,could a reccession be a consequence down the road with rate hikes or is the interest rate too low for that? I had posted "somewhere" after reading some comments from the G7 that this really is a tightrope situation isn't it? How 'bout those comments on cnbc comparing today to the speculation of July '96???HMMMM? Regargs, Barbara

To: William H Huebl who wrote (16974)	4/21/1998 9:07:00 AM
From: Tommaso	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

"The real trick here is to somehow work interest rates up enough so putting your money in the bank competes with throwing it in the stock market... and not cause a major or permanent market dislocation." I think it's way too late. A very minor shift of assets out of the stock market and into bank accounts would cause a much larger drop in stocks. The stock market is an ongoing auction. As long as the bids keep coming in the prices rise--but suppose you turn around and offer that interesting hat rack you just paid $175 for and nobody says anything. Is it still worth $175? No--only what someone will bid for it. So even with no money changing hands and the same amount of money available, the hat rack might end up fetching a tenth of what you paid. And a lot of these stocks are going to be about as valuable as a superannuated piece of computer equipment. The instant that money is perceived as being more valuable than stocks it will all be over for this market. The Federal Reserve has repeated most of the mistakes it made in the later 1920s, and the mistakes it made in the later 1960s. A huge decline in stock prices is inevitable; let's hope that somehow we avoid either the deflation of the 1930s or the inflation of the 1970s.

To: William H Huebl who wrote (16974)	4/21/1998 9:22:00 AM
From: Mike M2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, I would argue the FED is already cornered and there is no way to painlessly deflate this bubble. Just my opinion. Mike