To: Rocky Reid who wrote (53272 ) 4/21/1998 2:55:00 PM From: Brendan2012 Respond to of 58324
Well, it looks like the market is acting a little prematurely in thinking Iomega's already turning things around. Yes, the management changes may be a good sign, but the really important issues are still out there, no clearer now than some time ago. The NEC news is nothing new--Citizen did the same thing not too long ago. The really important Clik! announcements will come when (if?) customers sign up. I think Clik! sounds great and has huge potential, but I now think we should hear about OEMs before jumping to conclusions about Clik!'s success. More important to Iomega in the short term is that two more quarters of losses are coming, Iomega is really getting behind in keeping Jaz competitive, and Zip OEM sales don't appear to be increasing any (thus leaving a possible opening for Sony, if Sony does everything right). I think the time to be buying Iomega is not now, but rather after Sony releases the HiFD and it's not an immediate success. I figure Sony's release might drop IOM's price some, but if the HiFD isn't immediately tremendously successful then it will lose out to the Zip. The HiFD just doesn't have what it takes to unseat the Zip, IMO, but, well, it is Sony behind it, and the pricing appears to be reasonable (OEM price the same as the Zip? That means the HiFD would actually be cheaper for OEM's to install than a Zip+Floppy). The other major sign to look for to be sure of Iomega's turnaround is a significant increase in the proportion of computers coming with Zip standard. A good Clik! OEM soon could also be very significant. Right now, however, Iomega is faced with possible erosion of Jaz sales coupled with stagnation of Zip sales. Certainly it's too early to say either of these products are returning to growth yet, and if Zip begins to decline, well, what's left? The uncertainty of Clik!'s success, which now appears more important than ever to Iomega given Zip's stagnation, is another worry. Brendan