PW notes dated 04/15/98 on March monthly scrip data
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DETAILS
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1. Solid monthly scrips for March
- For the month of March 1998, Viracept prescriptions were as follows:
- Total prescriptions were 48, 637 compared with 42,132 in February (15.4%
unadjusted growth, 4.8% adjusted growth)
- New prescriptions were 17,697 compared with 15,495 in February (14.2%
unadjusted growth, 3.6% adjusted growth)
- Refills were 30,940 compared with 26,637 in February (16.2% unadjusted
growth, 5.6% adjusted growth)
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Viracept
Prescriptions Oct-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98
Total (TRX) 40,830 40,013 45,682 45,466 42,132 48,637
New (NRX) 16,099 15,455 17,137 16,887 15,495 17,697
Refils (RRX) 24,731 24,558 28,545 28,579 26,637 30,940
M/M Unadj. chg. (TRX) 8.9% -2.0% 14.2% -0.5% -7.3% 15.4%
Adj. Growth (TRX) 2.6% 8.9% 4.5% 1.8% -0.8% 4.8%
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Table 1
PROTEASE INHIBITOR MARKET - TOTAL PRESCRIPTIONS
(UNADJUSTED, IN ABSOLUTE NUMBERS)
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Oct-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98
Viracept 40,830 40,013 45,682 45,466 42,132 48,637
Crixivan 60,000 55,000 57,600 56,088 52,132 58,032
Invirase 26,865 24,715 23,987 20,785 16,453 15,707
Norvir 17,233 16,543 19,144 20,316 19,054 22,104
Fortovase ------- 1,000 6,153 9,990 12,068 16,471
Total 144928 137271 152566 152645 141839 160951
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Table 2
PROTEASE INHIBITOR MARKET - MONTH OVER MONTH
ADJUSTED GROWTH RATES (TRX)
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Oct-97 Nov-97 Dec-97 Jan-98 Feb-98 Mar-98
Viracept 2.6% 8.9% 4.5% 1.8% -0.8% 4.8%
Crixivan 2.8% 2.6% -5.0% -0.3% -0.6% 0.7%
Invirase -4.7% 2.9% -12.6% -11.0% -14.3% -15.1%
Norvir 4.9% 6.9% 6.0% 8.4% 0.3% 5.4%
Fortovase NA NA 505.6% 64.7% 27.3% 25.9%
Total 1.5% 5.6% 1.4% 2.4% -0.6% 2.9%
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Norvir/Fortovase trends continue along - bodes well for future
combination use with Viracept. Increased use of this combination
of two PIs continues to be reflected in the prescription data. In the last
several months, Norvir and Fortobase prescription fax missing data
:
-- In our opinion, this strong performance in terms of absolute scrip figures
for Viracept is reflective of increasing market demand for Viracept and confirms
the fact that the product continues to achieve new record levels.
-- Crixivan market share continues to slip. In our analysis, growth in Crixivan
scrips have declined with year to year growth down 8%. Its market share has dropped
considerably from 55-60% last summer to now only 36%.
-- Viracept maintains strong 30.2% market share (see Chart 2). Viracept continues
to increase its marketing share increasing from 29.7% to 30.2% for total prescriptions
within the PI class.
:
Reiterating Buy (1) rating. Viracept has achieved the best market launch of any
biotechnology product and represents the fourth best U.S. launch of any drug with
U.S. sales at a current annual run rate of nearly $375 million. Our conviction regarding
the significant market prospects for Viracept remains intact. In our opinion, Viracept
continues to be viewed as the optimal first line protease inhibitor given its combination
of durability and potency of effect, ease of use, mild side effect profile, and favorable
cross resistance profile. Our 12-month price target is $65-70 based on our fiscal
2000 EPS estimate of $3.43 using a 25-30% discount rate and a 30 multiple. The
stock is currently trading at a P/E multiple of 24.4x our 1998 calendar year estimate
of $1.56 per share. |
