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To: SecularBull who wrote (38565)	4/21/1998 6:11:00 PM
From: Jim Patterson	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 176387

Frothy ????? So what !!! That is the point behind this market. The frothyer the better. If YHOO can add 2 Billion in market cap, Then DELL should be able to add 5 easy. LoD, Be careful not to make the same mistake that I have been making all along. That is thinking that anything fundamental or whatever matters. So I stand by my Bear predictions, But I am going to do it from outside the kitchen...or rather the Boiler room. Jim

To: SecularBull who wrote (38565)	4/22/1998 5:01:00 AM
From: Mick Mørmøny	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 176387

>>I wouldn't be so bold as to project 80 tomorrow. I have said for a while that actual EPS needs to factored when assessing that DELL is properly valued on the 45-55 p/e range. Higher than that is not realistic, and is frothy in my opinion. BTW, I will let you know when to sell.<< Glad to know someone is rational about DELL and the markets. Keep up the good work. Hope Alan Greenspan won't be the party pooper. Been long on DELL since '96. Wednesday, April 22 1998 As markets continue to surge on positive earnings, some are looking out for the top Here's how to tell when the market's about to hit the roof by Michael Brush Call it a hat trick! All three of the major market indexes set records Tuesday, as investors continue to be cheered by positive earnings reports. The Dow, Nasdaq and the S&P 500 indexes each closed at new highs. "Things look pretty positive," says Chuck Hill, who analyzes earnings numbers for First Call. With about half of the S&P 500 companies reporting so far this quarter, firms are beating estimates by an average of 2.8% -- which is about normal. No sign yet, in other words, of the downside risk from Asia. "It is business as usual," says Hill. "We are getting the usual positive bias to what were severely reduced numbers." That kind of good news, along with plausible reasons why current high valuations are not so scary, kept investor enthusiasm high. It also had some seasoned observers wondering whether we are finally reaching a market top. Maybe not, as long as interest rates continue to decline and the money keeps flowing in to support this liquidity-driven market, many experts say. But the ceiling is looming out there somewhere. We polled some top Wall Street insiders and experts to find the common signs that things are finally topping out. Here's what to look for: Market psychology indicators. One popular indicator in this group is a measure of bullishness among investment newsletter writers, which is put together by Investor's Intelligence, another newsletter. If the newsletter writers are too bullish, that's a bad sign because it suggests that their customers are fully invested and there is little money left on the sidelines to push stocks higher. Where do they stand now? At the high end of the neutral zone with a 69% bullish rating on a scale in which anything above 75% is extreme optimism. Insider sentiment. Another indicator is insider selling, which continues to nudge upwards. "There is clearly no cry from insiders that the extraordinary first quarter for stocks will be repeated," says Richard Cuneo, at Vickers Weekly Insider. "Volatility could very likely be part of the picture over the short term." Investor overconfidence. John Manley, an equity strategist at Salomon Smith Barney, says watch out for an attitude shift taking people from a belief that the market will go up, to one that says the market must go up. Excesses in spending. Manley recalls one thing that tipped him off to a market top in the early 1970s was the rapidly rising price of top-shelf wines. So keep an eye on that wine list, even if you don't drink. Also watch sales of things like expensive luxury cars and homes, he says, "or anything else that shows signs of hubris on Wall Street." Excesses in the real estate market. Overconfidence at market tops often spills over into the real estate market, especially the high end and commercial sectors. "We potentially have a top at the high end of the real estate market in the middle west," says James Paulsen, the chief investment officer at Norwest Investment Management. "But the commercial market has been well controlled." Small company fervor. Piqued interest in small cap stocks often signals the end of a bull run. Today, interest in small cap stocks is picking up, but there is still an overall bias towards large cap stocks. Booming investment industry. A common benchmark here is the price of a seat on the New York Stock Exchange. One sold on March 9 for $2 million, which was a record. Another sold on April 3 for $1.6 million. Also, watch things like the number of securities analysts entering the field, the number of new certified financial analysts, and the number of mutual funds -- all of which are at record levels now, according to Paulsen. Too much public interest in the stock markets. One measure of this is the number of investment clubs, also at an all time high, says Paulsen. Also, be suspicious when you see a lot of cover stories on the markets in non-business publications. And watch your head when you start getting stock tips from cab drivers or the person bagging your groceries. Beni Mick Mormony