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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: robert b furman who wrote (17037)	4/21/1998 11:25:00 PM
From: robert b furman	Respond to of 94695

I have very little training on international payments.Given a scenario of the Japanese economy continuing to tank due to the good ol'boy connections/inefficiencies.Would not the truly wealthy in japan call in their investments in U.S. Treasury Bills to continue their extremely inflated lifestyles.The fact that Britain is now the largest holders of T- Bills is intriguing!Should this cashing in of T-Bills for Yen accelerate- would not the demand for Yen increase-thus in a supply/demand scenario make the Yen higher in demand and therefore increase in value relative to dollar? I have seen the manufacturer of the product I sell gain more market share not because of better quality but because of yen/dollar parity than anything else. If the yen rose because of domestic (japanese) demand - it would greatly diminish the domestic profitability of japanese products.This lack of profitability would further fuel the need for repatriation of japanese assets - further driving up the demand for/value of the yen. The surprise B.K.scenario of a High Yen has already been mentioned - It really does seem like a legitimate surprise to the american public. Why do we accept the dollar is worth 1.3 Yens when these people pump products into our country with a 30% imbalance of currency equivalence.Somewhere in that 30% lies a fat advantage and profit. This advantage continued over time could hide many inefficiencies and create layers of fat in an inefficient economy. I am not an economist,but can see this simple supply/demand equation become a reality.Any opinions out there that counters/supports this surprise BK scenario are welcome.

To: robert b furman who wrote (17037)	4/22/1998 1:33:00 AM
From: Berney	Respond to of 94695

Bob, as a green eyeshade, number cruncher, I stick around the BK thread because I believe that I can use the different perspectives and points of view that are presented. One of the things not appreciated about IBM is that they are actually shareholder friendly. On our value investing thread, Wayne noted that at MSFT, 50% of cash flow is consumed by paying for employee options. IBM has actually reduced the number of shares by 13% since 1995. That is unique in the land of tech. Read an article in our local paper that indicated that internet usage is now doubling every 100 days. This cannot help the future fortunes of the IBM's and Cisco's. You might enjoy this analysis I did: Message 4034074 Berney