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Technology Stocks : INVX Innovex Comdex Winner !! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gerald Walls who wrote (2419)	4/22/1998 1:22:00 PM
From: Mark Oliver	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3029

I didn't get the feeling that things were going well at Hutch. I think they are quicker to talk about programs than Innovex because they are afraid, with good reason, that investors will flee. They've bet their company on making a success out of TSA and they really don't have much to show for it but losses. Losses on suspensions as well as TSA. The point is no one expects either of these companies to have a good report this quarter. They want to know what is the forward looking situation. For Innovex, they said several things which for me were good. - Demand uptrending for the quarter. - Nearing 1 million HIF units per week. This is with one announced program with Segate vs Hucth's 1.6 mil/week with 7 programs. - HIF yields ahead of schedule. - No revenue this quarter from Iconovex. Expect meaningful rev by year end. New product coming. Probably much lower cost of doing business as well. - Chip packaging margins will be high. Expect them to track margins in lead wires. Chip packaging in qualifiacation and looking for ramp at end of year. - Moving HIF production to Asia as volume rises. That implies to me that they have worked out most of their manufacturing issues and yields are good, therefore it's time to get labor costs down. This is a sign of maturing products. - Developing a program with a pre amp on the suspension. This is the beginning of a very exciting cycle. INVX suggests they have a better product for adding components than Hutchinson. I don't know? You worry about "spin" as these companies try to tell people things will be better based on added capacity in place to meet coming demand, but what else can they say? INVX said SEG was asking for HIF to ramp by mid year and they've proven to be a very strong buyer. INVX seems reluctant to put "spin" on possible program wins opposed to Hutch. There are just 2 styles of doing business here. I think Innovex's conservative spin on the future is more reliable. They simply say here are the products, here are the reasons why people will buy them, we have the ability to make them, we can make a profit on them and we can make a profit while these businesses develop (even in a sevre down cycle). Regards, Mark