To: The Perfect Hedge who wrote (27590 ) 4/22/1998 10:43:00 AM From: Knighty Tin Respond to of 132070
GD, Yes, I have seen this type of crazy buying several times in the past. Int the 1960s, all you had to do was have a new issue with a name that ended in -tronics, and you got a huge price. It didn't matter if you had one wall socket and a corner of the garage for your mfg. space. -g- Also in the 1960s (this was a decade of excess in all matters), conglomerates were able to pull the same merger crapola that the banks are pulling now. Dummies fell for it. I was one of them, at one time holding Teledyne, Litton, Whittaker, Gulf and Western, Ling-Temco-Vought, etc. Then I got lucky. I was sent overseas and couldn't follow them closely and sold at what was near the all-time highs. Better to be lucky than good. The idea that two lousy cos. make one great co. has never proven itself historically. In the 1970s, gold was golden and we had lots of cos as well-capitalized as Bre-X come out at big prices. Some still exist. In the late 70s, early 80s, it was all energy. Nobody wanted to know what you made. They wanted to know if you had any producing properties. A story I've told many times was how Greyhound went up because there might be oil under all those bus depots they owned. -g- The prices got very silly. We had a huge run with Japanese stocks in the 1970s and 1980s. This is when John Templeton made his reputation. Then, of course, we had the emerging markets in the early and mid-1990s. That is why I know this current bubble will not last. Too many in the past. I don't think it is huge demand that is driving stocks up as much as it is absolutely no sellers. If I own IBM and think that negative 13 pct. eps growth is fantastic, I won't sell. If you don't own and also want to get in on that -13 pct. eps growth, you have to buy from the specialist. He sees buyers and no sellers, so he raises the prices. And it doesn't matter if you are an individual or an institution. Of course, if you are buying half a million shares, you get more attention than if you are buying 100 shares. -g- It is the public moving stocks, either through the institutions they control, like mutual funds, or on their own. I guarantee that if the public ever moves to cash, which they will after a down market, then institutions will not be able to move stocks up. Yes, sector rotation always happens, in bull and bear markets. The investing public cannot walk and chew gum at the same time, so they have to concentrate on one area before moving on. The street knows this and tries to guide them. That works some times and some times the public just ignores them and heads for the sector they like. MB