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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Clint E. who wrote (15643)	4/22/1998 12:46:00 AM
From: space cadet	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 68290

Hi Clint, long time no speak. I agree that the semi's are not where the action has been at, though even intel is firming here. I am interested in your appraisal of msft since I just did something risky with calls on it. I bought out of the money relatively short term calls on it, which I have religiously swore off for the last year. But this crazy rally is bringing alot of old bad dangerous habits back out of the closet. It does feel like a top but first the internet nonsense has to collapse before the "real" stocks with real p/e ratios like msft manu and psft get hit. Of course, maybe tops don't follow common sense- that's why I'm going to try to pay close attention for the next month or two. I'm expecting msft to have a nice earnings rally, though it could be fairly argued that it already had that rally and I just missed it. I'm thinking we have at least another few weeks if not months of hot air. Maybe we even go straight to 10k without stopping from here. Incidentally some of your short picks are on my list as well, especially mxim and qntm. Of the entire list I think txn has the lowest p/e ratio so I would probably hesitate there. I really can't say I even understand the dynamics of a stock like lhsg. There are an infinite number of no name internet stocks that also look extremely tempting. I say they are the first to fall, followed by the name internet stocks like aol,yhoo,amzn. At that point I will be neutral or short. Hopefully we are talking about a couple of days if not weeks after the first preview travel type of fluff has finally collapsed. My quotrek may prove handy this summer...

To: Clint E. who wrote (15643)	4/22/1998 1:34:00 AM
From: Suresh	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 68290

Hi Clint, I wanted to listen to CHRZ CC to see what kind of a management team would mess up a good earnings report. It was a sad display of guiding the analysts. They must be thinking they are like MSFT/IBM's of the world and their stock will go up irrespective of how they represent the company. Actually beyond all the hoopla, I thought the results were pretty decent. From the tone of the analyst questions it appears that they are really looking for value/momentum beyond Y2K. So, this might influence the movement of other companies in the sector in the short term. If the revenue mix strongly favors Y2K contracts they might be punished. I am eagerly awaiting the results of other Y2K companies and their CC. Later, Suresh