To: w2j2 who wrote (10151 ) 4/22/1998 8:54:00 AM From: DaveMG Respond to of 152472
Walter, I am afraid to admit I have to agree with you. I think the report is fairly miserable, however I think the fact that revs declined is not so important, after all they have increased enormously in the last year, a pause doesn't seem to me to be anything to worry about.What I think is a problem is that despite greatly increased royalties licensing and dev fees and the benefits of this tax adjustment they did far worse than last quarter. It seems that this problem with the phones must have been a major factor. I'm dubious about their Q phone strategy. I find it hard to believe that in the near term, and by that I mean over the next year or so, that there will much of a market for a single band CDMA phone. If what others on this thread have indicated is true,a Bell Atlantic phone won't work on Sprints network. It's going to be a long time before one can really roam with this phone. Why would someone who can afford this phone, exactly the kind of person who travels a lot, want to be so restricted. They would probably have to by an additional dual mode phone. I guess that the reduced ASICS sales must also be a very big factor. I think we can infer that they must be responsible for most of the profit in the entire manufacturing operation, and that's because Q is not doing the manufacturing.It's makes you wonder whether everyone wouldn't be better off if Q was just an R&D operation. Obviously, it must be extremely difficult to build a co like this from scratch, to have to manage all this growth, construction of factories, negotiations with everyone on the face of the planet, constantly changing technological environment. Clearly, the fact that they have gotten this far is great testimony to managments strength. The future looks really bright although not without significant risk in my opinion. The land and skyscape will continue to evolve at a very rapid pace. A lot of the contemplated projects will involve vendor financing. It sounds like Q will also take equity in some more of these projects.They still seem to be somewhat in the position of the supplicant when it comes to infrastructure.They must still be learning how to build all this G* equipment, gateways and phones.They could have problems with that stuff too.They will continue to rely on Royalties and licensing to make up for these problems.On the other hand, if things go really well, EPS growth will skyrocket:). "All told we believe that this issue will prove highly profitable over the next 3-5 yrs. The turmoil in Asia is likely to keep the stock even more volatile than usual for the foreseeable future"Value Line 4/10/99 Stock is down before the open. Looks like I'm not the only one who feels this way..Hopefully we'll be bailed out by this euphoric environment.. Dave