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Technology Stocks : THQ,Inc. (THQI) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Eugenio Draschner who wrote (4790)	4/22/1998 2:07:00 AM
From: Bleeker	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 14266

Prepare yourselves for upward earnings and price target revisions by the analyst community. Consider that the highest Q1 earnings estimate was 41 cents, a couple of pennies above mine. Okay, so I'm a little conservative. THQI's P/E is now very close to the low end of its historic range under Farrell's rein. With a P/E of 14 it is now 9 points lower than the conservative P/E average of 23 for the industry. THQI would need to trade at $48 in order to attain a conservative P/E multiple of 23. It will obviously take more than a couple of days for THQI to reach that level but I am confident that it will. WCW's % contribution to most of us is really as stodgy as Windsor soup. We have been talking about it on the thread for weeks. In a couple of days, we wll have a clearer picture on short interest. It may take more than a week for these short sellers to capitulate. I will hunt for more entry points with them to buy THQI shares. The catalyst for me was earnings. Anyway, averaging up is not such a bad strategy when a company turns dirt cheap on a P/E basis. THQI is way cheaper now than last Fall when it had a P/E of 28 and early this year when it had a P/E of 33. I personally view 33 as an anomaly but it's not really that far off from the broader market average. THQI is also notably cheaper than a year ago for that matter on a P/E basis. I just dropped a post on the RADAF thread that price by itself ($23, $42, $65) really means nothing without looking at it in the context of earnings. It's also important to remember that THQI's recent runup was preceded by a huge SELLOFF which allowed for old money to exit and new money with a higher cost base to move in. The same process will happen in the weeks ahead as we get deeper into Q2. Frankly, with the strong line up of games in Q2 (Quest, bass fishing and existing games) does anyone doubt that THQI will be unable to exceed the 14 cents from Q2 1997? A conservative estimate of 56 cents for Q2 would give us trailing earnings of $2.51 for the four most recent quarters: can you start to see $50 yet? That's a P/E of 19.9 only. If we go with Volpe Brown's industry average P/E of 23, that's almost $60. And then there is Q3. And then there is Q4 and Notre Dame's favorite site: members.aol.com p.s. I expect the earnings and price target upgrades within a week. Rugrats, Bleeker

To: Eugenio Draschner who wrote (4790)	4/22/1998 2:27:00 AM
From: Harry	Respond to of 14266

Previews of Dead Unity and Shao Lin. Dead Unity psmonline.com Shao Lin psmonline.com Not a whole lot there right now, but I figured some of you might be interested just to get an idea of what the games are and how they're positioned. Also, with regards to Bass Masters, my main question is what the overlap is between the gaming market and the fishing market. Yes, the fishing population is large, but I have a couple reservations. 1) I'm wary of jumping to conclusions that just because someone likes fishing, they'd also like a video game about fishing. Is anybody on this board into fishing, and if so, what do you think about a fishing video game? 2) Secondly, although I have no data to back this, I'm pretty sure that very few people buy a game system just for one game (and yes, I have heard the various stories about how Final Fantasy VII did this, but the fact that those stories are considered such an impressive tribute to FF VII gives some indication of how rare this is). Anyway, just a word of caution. I like THQ's prospects, but I have a hard time seeing Bass Masters as a franchise title. I'd rather bet on Quest 64, Rugrats, Dead Unity, and Shao Lin all doing pretty well. :-) Harry