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To: Gersh Avery who wrote (2531)	4/22/1998 2:37:00 PM
From: Berney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

Gersh, Thanks for the article. I learned last year that it does not pay to attempt to guess what the Fed will do. Just wait until 2:15 on the day of the announcement and pull the trigger. You'll still be in front of the Big Boys. But, particularly after doing the analysis for Steve, I got to believe that the Fed is watching Merger Mania in the banking sector. IMHO it sure has destroyed the investment value (long-term) of this sector. But then, its been a great ride. BWDIK Berney

To: Gersh Avery who wrote (2531)	4/22/1998 5:52:00 PM
From: MonsieurGonzo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11051

Gersh; RE:" Futures " CL98M/Z Crude Oil Futures tanked today, from $16.00 to $15.50, closing at $15.60 bbl. Note how the XOI.X and OSX.X rallies fizzled intra-day. TYX.X 30-Y Treasury Index (which has been rising) is at 59.57 and made a doji candlestick, which may portend a reversal of the bellwether long bondz (price up / rate index down) but the price trend is still down. It has a clear trading range, and is near the top of it. VIX.X Volatility Index is at 19.80 and also made a doji candlestick, which may portend a reversal of the market (to down). If volatility goes up tomorrow, this sentiment would be confirmed. The DX98M Dollar Futures Index (which has been going down) has made an inverted hammer candlestick, which may portend reversal of the USD's fall. DM98M German DEM Futures Index and FR98M French Franc Futures Index (which have been rising) made shooting stars yesterday and traded lower today, which may indicate a reversal or short-term top in the DEM and FF's rise. The JY98Z Japanese Yen Futures Index was stronger today; it is approaching the top of its DownTrend channel - which, when the trend is removed, has the same cycles up and down as our TYX.X Treasury Index (as you pointed out to me earlier). The SP98M S&P-500 Futures Index ("Spoos") is at 1135 and has made a gravestone doji candlestick, which, upon confirmation tomorrow by a red (down) candle, would indicate a retest of recent low supports at ~ 1100-1110 (down 25 to 35 index points on the S&P-500). The ND98M NASDAQ-100 Futures Index is at 1301.50, and has made 10 bullish, white candlesticks in a row; statistically, 10-12 white candles without a red candle, or a doji pause, is quite rare. Earnings-wise, the big, popular TechStocks yet to report are GTW, LSI and QNTM (tomorrow), NOK.A (Friday), WDC (Monday) and ERICY (Wednesday). -Steve