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Technology Stocks : Citrix Systems (CTXS) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: J. Kerner who wrote (5549)	4/22/1998 10:40:00 AM
From: dougjn	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 9068

If Citrix continues to make incremental improvements to its WinFrame and MetaFrame products, I think it can keep going for a very long time. Msft cannot simply copy. Even if Msft comes up with something supposedly better, it will have to be somewhat different. If Ctxs has firmly established itself, it will be in a strong position. Existing customers will tend to want to do legacy upgrades, rather than conversions. New customers have a well proven ver. 8 or 9.x product, or whatever, versus something new, albeit from Msft. Its true that Msft could simply cut them out of integrating into the NEXT version of NT. E.g. 6.0, or more likely, version running on 64 bit chips like Merced. But I think it is very likely that Msft won't want to take the market and legal heat to do so. Esp. if Ctxs is by then quite visible, with a good corp. customer base. Which I expect to be the case. The course of least resistence for Msft will be to re-up on its partnering agreements w/ CTXS. Probably at somewhat better terms for Msft next time, if the market gets BIG, BIG, BIG. As I think it will. I really can't think of a prior partnership comparable to this on for Msft in the past. E.g., the disk compression deal with Stax is hardly comparable. Little bitty add ons are hardly comparable. And its prior relationship w/IBM was also hardly comparable....they were co-developing different versions of the whole operating system. Inherantly highly unstable, like Co-CEO's. Ctxs will always be the junior partner, but esp. in the legal environment, I think partnering could well have legs -- or, and this is certainly possible, Ctxs could eventually get bought out by Msft. (Because right now its product is complementary rather than competitive it should pass DOJ muster.) That actually wouldn't surprise me at all in a couple of years if the area explodes, as I think it will. Doug

To: J. Kerner who wrote (5549)	4/22/1998 10:50:00 AM
From: Christine Traut	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 9068

Jason: Challenging question, and I trust you will indulge me if I give you a preliminary, gut-level answer. <<You seem to think Citrix will be able to hold their own against Microsoft. If you could let me know how I would appreciate it.>> My vision for Citrix is that they become the network operating system that links old-style PC computing with thin client devices. Unless MSFT really means to control everything in the world, why shouldn't they want Citrix's help in linking these two worlds? Plus, I do not think that Microsoft-as-they-have-been is Microsoft-as-they-will-be. Robert Bork signing on to help develop the anti-trust case is a Big, Big deal. Citrix can also link non-PC and non-Windows devices to server farms running MSFT operating systems and Windows-based software. Once again, why would Microsoft want to prevent this? Microsoft has made big commitments to their developers. Citrix helps extend these applications to new, thin client devices. Finally, Citrix management seems to be doing a great job of coexisting with Microsoft and even pushing their own interests. Wish that I had understood and respected Citrix's management as much last year as I do today - could have bought the stock at 20 pre split instead of 43. Nothing in this market is a sure thing. But I have more confidence in my Citrix investment than any other. They stand to benefit from every trend that I see. Thin client, simplified computing and support, Y2K mess. I'm not totally sanguine about Microsoft, but I sleep at night. Be thankful for the Microsoft fear if you hope to buy any more Citrix on the dips.