To: Todd D. Wiener who wrote (4858 ) 4/22/1998 1:29:00 PM From: AreWeThereYet Respond to of 14266
All, I am backed! Interesting day, I expected there is a morning gap up follow by more ga-ga buying after the upbeat cc, then some heavy profit taking afternoon since THQI has been up for last 10 trading days. It turned out that no internet game and THQ is not going to rename to InternetHQ but Farrell gave cautious words and we tested 50 DMA right after making new high this morning! Book value has increased 18.6% to $5.36 (my calc), p/e around 14 along with healthy cash flow and zero debt. Gross margin is unbelievable high at 58% but expect to drop slightly in Q2. Operation Expense is well controlled as usual. 88% revenue from WCW is no joke, Farrell definitely knows he and his teammates must work hard to repeat the outstanding success of WCW. Now THQ has 22M cash and used only 0.6M for GameFX. So expect more developments or capital investments in the near future. GameFX adds another 2 development teams to THQ. I expect Farrell will focus more on quality in the meantime keep up the quantity. $2.00 EPS is piece of cake for FY98 because of WCW, I expect THQ can at least maintain $2+ EPS in FY99 (after WCW license expired). If you use Farrell's conservative formula: annual growth rate of 25%, assume GM stay the same you get FY97= $1.35a, FY98 = $1.69e, FY99 = $2.11e. I am very comfortable with my ultra-conservative 8 months target of low to mid $40s. (my whisper target is $50 :o) Any price close to 50 DMA is a strong buy. Uptrend should resumes in next few days. Red Chips Review conference will probably give THQI another boost in the short term. It's amazing that THQI rated grade "A" in Red Chips while TAVA only get "B". Stagger, you can't treat WCW as one time gain because THQ still has the right of it til June 1999. You may called it an 4 to 6 times gainS. Bleeker >> But the thestreet.com feature should also help get the word out. << Just hope thestreet get the right idea out, not "88% revenue from WCW". Todd, are you using PC or Mac? aC