To: Toby who wrote (819 ) 4/22/1998 11:01:00 PM From: Robert Holmes Respond to of 10714
I recently got out of Cree for the following reasons (and no, I'm not short Cree): Although SiC has a lot of potential and is realizing some of that, I can't say I'm completely comfortable with the management. For starters, it is by no means a certainty that SiC has advantages over GaN devices. Common sense would beckon the question why is it that so many companies (HWP, XRX, EMKR, Nichia etc.) are working with GaN based devices if SiC is to emerge a clear winner? (see below) Also, the fact that Cree has decided to dedicate resources to producing artificial diamonds at a time when they are supposedly close to success on a "number of fronts" in SiC based electronics is troubling to me as an investor, particularly when C3 was founded by the same family who began Cree. Another small factor in my decision was that shortly after the 4th Q conference call in which the CEO stated that the price was "certainly fairly valued" at 17, he sold off 7,000 shares. I know that may not mean much, but it was just one more factor. As for lasers, Marie is correct in that the CEO stated that they had yet to reach 100 hour lifetime and it is my understanding that you need to be at 10,000 to be commercially viable for products such as DVD. Below is a recent announcement from Emcore (who sells epitaxial products to Cree by the way). Uniroyal Optoelectronics has licensed technology from Emcore as well to develop GaN LED's. I have to ask myself why would they throw their money away? The only logical answer is that it is an open question as to whether SiC will compete favorably with GaN. EMCORE Corporation (Nasdaq: EMKR) today announced it has successfully developed commercial quality indium gallium nitride (InGaN) based materials technology used in blue spectrum light emitting diodes (LEDs). The production of high brightness LEDs in the blue spectrum is a relatively recent technology accomplishment in optoelectronics, and the demand for nitride based bright blue and green LEDs currently outstrips the compound semiconductor industry's capability to supply the new devices. The high brightness blue LED technology breakthrough is expected to expand EMCORE's leadership position in GaN development. It was achieved on the largest GaN Metal Organic Chemical Vapor Deposition (MOCVD) system in the world to yield commercial grade LEDs. Nitride-based LEDs are necessarily dependent on MOCVD reactors and are the only such blue spectrum devices technologically positioned for high volume production. Reuben Richards, President and Chief Executive Officer of EMCORE, credited EMCORE's new business plan as the means of rapidly developing the company's high volume nitride process. "We are building from our core strength, which is our compound semiconductor materials science technology, coupled with the basic tool needed to produce commercial volumes of bright LEDs. Our nitride achievements are directly attributed to developing a production-worthy, very bright blue LED process on our GaN multi-wafer Discovery 180 SpectraBlue(tm) TurboDisc reactor." The newly released SpectraBlue tool includes landmark enhancements and has been tailored to meet the diverse requirements of the international blue spectrum LED device manufacturers who are poised to move into volume production. The total worldwide LED market for 1997 was estimated at $1.95 billion, according to Strategies Unlimited of Mountain View, CA. Strategies is a noted market research firm that has specialized in compound semiconductors and the optoelectronic component markets for the past 10 years. "Our current estimate for the GaN-based blue and green LED portion of the market is $140 million, which represents nearly a doubling over the previous year," stated Robert V. Steele, Strategies' Director of Optoelectronics. Strategies Unlimited projects the total GaN-related products market to reach the $3 billion level by 2006, growing at an average annual growth rate of 44%. EMCORE is the largest supplier of high volume blue LED production tools in the world. EMCORE has the added distinction of being a merchant supplier of blue LED wafers. "Multi-wafer processing capability is key to volume production, "explained Mr. Richards. "In the short term, we will continue to do our best in helping meet projected OEM volume requirements by quickly moving our SpectraBlue multi-wafer machines into the field. In parallel, we are working closely with key customers to help assure them a steady supply of finished wafers or production technology as they project their ramps in 1998 and beyond." Power output for EMCORE's new blue LEDs was greater than 1 milliwatt (mW) at a wavelength of 470 nanometers, with a forward voltage of approximately 4 volts. The company is uniquely poised to fuel the LED industry with the production tools, materials, and technology needed for the optoelectronics industry to meet their projections. EMCORE is currently expanding its wafer manufacturing facilities in Somerset, NJ, to meet the demand for the new blue LED wafers. Popular international applications include bright full-color outdoor displays, automotive lighting, lighted emergency and commercial message signs, traffic signals, and as a low power alternative to conventional white lighting.