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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (17071)	4/22/1998 6:19:00 PM
From: Barbara Barry	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

Jim, I don't merely look at a chart of an index,but rather,monitor MANY different things...including individual equities and forward projections.You said it when "she" wants to go higher.We can also suffer from "analysis paralysis" by making everthing too complicated.Your posts are great and often over my head,but you know what this market is doing.Most of us are frustrated and getting impatient with knowing this market is "wrong" yet it won't let us be right.SOOOO,I have been doing some equity day trades along with the other fools and making some $$$. About trading index options....you are right about the odds.BUT if you have learned what I have you know enough not to fight a trend too quickly and the second you're wrong....you're out.I am not sophisticated enough to try and scalp intraday moves...guess I am a little slow...but WHEN I think the trend will reverse(with the help of many here)I will return to play/work again. You have done a lot of great investigating and analysis...but this market doesn't seem to appreciate your efforts or anyone else's that makes sense.Not YET,anyway.IMHO,unless somehting major occurs,this market broke 9200 today and when people come home tonight...well you know how that Psych stuff works.I just keep working harder and harder to find that crack in the dike. BWDIK Regards, Barbara

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (17071)	4/22/1998 7:42:00 PM
From: paulmcg0	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

[We are minnows about to have our plate cleaned by a mindless and super borg type computer program] _ That's a real possibility, something I referred to in a previous posting, about how a large amount of market activity is one broker's computer programs battling those of another broker. If you really want to read an article that explains all this, check out this link, especially the section about "Markets out of control" and the Epilogue (it's a chapter from a book from Princeton University Press): pupress.princeton.edu

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (17071)	4/22/1998 10:08:00 PM
From: ratan lal	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Jim I am a little confused by some items in your post today. The gainers and losers (but not all the volume leaders) that you see on yahoo ar NOT the ones that make up any of the indexes I follow i.e OEX, S&P500, DOW. I am not sure of Russell 2000. So the indexes will not be affected by their movement.And MONEY FLOW will not accurately reflect the market. ratan

To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (17071)	4/23/1998 8:13:00 AM
From: Tom M	Respond to of 94695

James, I always enjoy getting an education from your posts. As with most of us here, I've had the same recent feelings and strategy, have been 95% mmkt, then back in, then mmkt, now short-term/day trading until a correction. The market is doing a good job of punishing those on the sidelines, it knows we're there - heck, they manage out accounts and know exactly where our money is. I'm getting the feeling we just won't have the correction until they've suckered the sideline money back in. If it doesn't go back in, well then they'll just have more short-squeezing fun, making plenty of money in the meantime. Of course the big trick is to make us think it's different. And, many of us are having our doubts the longer this goes on. Putting Social Security funds in the market was back on CNN throughout the day yesterday. Bad idea of course, but they'd never even get it considered if we're about to have a new-circuit-breaker-testing correction, or perhaps even a confidence shattering 10-15% correction. So how about if once we get to a new top (~now?), we change the rules that have previously caused selloffs? The link Bill recently posted about coming up with new rules to eliminate the fund manger's incentive to "not just sell, but sell anything" supports this line of reasoning, not that the market is rational of course ;-) thanks again for sharing your experience, regards, Tom