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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lucretius who wrote (20065)	4/22/1998 6:38:00 PM
From: JBH	Respond to of 95453

LT, Yes, sorry...the chart I was looking at was UNT but I typed UTI.

To: Lucretius who wrote (20065)	4/22/1998 6:57:00 PM
From: waverider	Respond to of 95453

LT, you make some excellent points. While not willing to predict overall market directions, the internet hype and the overvaluation thing has me worried too. I'm not interested in selling anything I have, but then again most all I've got is in the oil patch (minus QCOM and RAIN)...as you said, we should be somewhat protected here. I sold the Fidelity Select Electronics Fund in the accounts I manage and move it into Energy Services and Growth & Income a couple weeks ago. Nothing like an undervalued sector and a general fund to protect you somewhat. I'd be nervous holding short term options here on anything...even though I still have my FGII Mays and NE Sept's (both 30)...so I guess I have grounds to be nervous a bit...am I?...will I said I'd would be so I guess...well, maybe I'm not. Understand? Hmm... Anyway, I agree with your prediction of a nasty correction...next week, I don't know...but soon. All I know is that I DON'T want to be around this coming OCTOBER! Rick Hydrocarbon

To: Lucretius who wrote (20065)	4/22/1998 6:59:00 PM
From: upanddown	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Luc, I tend to agree with you that a major correction in the general market is inevitable but the big question is when. If you think it is imminent then why not go to 100% cash ? Some of these guys, including NE, have had very nice runs and could be hit hard. I sold MDCO today with a 38% gain in 5 weeks and FLC with about half that. I wish I had sold them all. Everybody has a different situation with transaction costs and tax consequences. Mine is tax-deferred and low cost so if I can get out and back in a 1/16th cheaper, I make money. If I thought a major break was right now, I'd liquidate in a minute, but who knows ? Ask the short-sellers how much money they have lost trying to guess that. Good luck, John

To: Lucretius who wrote (20065)	4/22/1998 7:46:00 PM
From: Alias Shrugged	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Good question, LT. I guess my thinking starts with the reasons (real or perceived) that the market would tumble. Inflation fears ?? Weaker dollar?? Return of Asian flu ?? Higher interest rates ?? Earnings jitters ?? Only the last one will not kill drilling stocks. Asian flu implies weaker demand and lower oil prices. Weaker dollar may be OK, as oil will be cheaper to foreign countries since their currency should appreciate against the dollar and dollar-priced oil. Higher interest rates will strengthen (?) our currency - not good. Inflation will raise the nominal price of oil - would be OK if other currencies appreciate just as much. (Did you see the rise in gold stocks - also copper and aluminum have down well lately; somebody smells inflation) It is tough to come up with a scenario that doesn't hit our stocks also. I bought 20 MU May 27.5 puts for 3/8ths. If the market holds up for a while tomorrow am, i may buy some more cheap technology puts. Under what conditions would you see our stocks not suffer as much as the general market? Mike

To: Lucretius who wrote (20065)	4/22/1998 7:47:00 PM
From: marc chatman	Respond to of 95453

It depends what you mean by blown off. If you look at the charts from last August, when the general market went into a slide, the OSX took about a 10-12% dip of almost 10%. Of course, that led into the 40% run-up in the OSX. In retrospect, it was probably worth riding that one out rather than trying to time the rebound. My inclination is to let my long term investment in the sector ride. Of course, I could change my tune if I had a better crystal ball.