Joe,
Great Y2K article in detroit Free Press this morning about Big 3 Auto . Chrusler ran a test, changed date to 12/31/99 and factory just about shut down!
ig 3 fight 2000 bug in forced upgrade
Suppliers' computers a worry to carmakers
April 23, 1998
BY RACHEL KONRAD
Detroit Free Press Automotive Writer
Thank heavens it was a test. Only a test.
When Chrysler Corp. shut down its Sterling Heights Assembly Plant last year and turned all the plant's clocks to Dec. 31, 1999, executives were expecting to find computer glitches associated with the date change from 1999 to 2000.
But they weren't expecting quite so many glitches.
"We got lots of surprises," said Chrysler Chairman Robert Eaton. "Nobody could get out of the plant. The security system absolutely shut down and wouldn't let anybody in or out. And you obviously couldn't have paid people, because the time-clock systems didn't work."
Executives at General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and thousands of parts suppliers have similar horror stories.
The Year 2000 bug -- a glitch based on computer programming that reads only the last two digits of a year, so 2000 is read as 1900 -- has the potential to cripple Big Three production and delay paychecks for hundreds of thousands of employees.
To avoid hassles 20 months from now, Eaton said, Chrysler will spend $55 million this year to find and fix the problems. Ford won't say how much it plans to spend this year, but analysts agree it is at least $50 million and possibly several times that.
GM expects to spend $360 million to $500 million, most of it this year, to prepare its factories and offices for 2000. The largest automaker spent $44 million on Year 2000 issues in 1997.
"We've got ...hundreds of people -- possibly thousands -- working on this," said John Ahearne of GM Information Systems and Services. "In a way, everyone has to be part and parcel of this, if only for 10 minutes. Someone typing on a machine is going to have to deal with whether the word processor or computer will work in the year 2000. This problem touches everything and everyone."
Tedious work
While Detroit's automakers mobilize resources, no one has come up with an easy solution: Programmers must debug systems one by one. GM alone must review more than 2 billion lines of code, which operate office computers and up to 500,000 computerized, factory-floor devices that could crash Dec. 31, 1999.
But the Big Three are confident they will enter the new millennium smoothly. GM, Ford and Chrysler plan to finish debugging by the end of 1998. They'll spend 1999 fine tuning.
Their big worry concerns suppliers -- the more than 40,000 companies with 70,000 factories and offices around the world responsible for wheels, seats, robots, grommets, computer chips and millions of other parts needed for vehicles. GM alone has identified more than 40,000 sites worldwide that could disrupt production or administrative flow.
The largest suppliers -- Lear Corp., Johnson Controls Inc., Delphi Automotive Systems and a handful of others -- are in good shape. Many have taken responsibility for cascading Year 2000 advice through the tiers of smaller suppliers below them.
Small suppliers -- those with revenue less than $100 million a year --generally aren't progressing as swiftly. Constantly under pressure to slash costs, some of them can't afford to exterminate bugs.
"I have a feeling there are a lot of people out there who still -- even with all the publicity -- really don't know if and how they'll be impacted," said Marc Santucci, automotive analyst at ELM International in East Lansing. "There are a number of suppliers out there who won't do anything until the problem hits them on the head."
Supplier dependency
That scares the automakers, who cannot legally swoop in and debug software that doesn't belong to them. The automakers are dependent on suppliers to bring parts to the assembly lines, but suppliers generally are independent businesses that are not under the direct control of the car companies. So a small firm cranking out plastic fasteners has the potential to slow or halt assembly lines if it can't ship after Jan. 1, 2000.
"We're pretty sure our first tier will work," Chrysler President Thomas Stallkamp said of his company's largest suppliers. "It's the second and third and fourth tier who supply not just our industry but others. As you get further down the food chain, you've got a guy making widgets for us as well as for Boeing and Maytag, and those guys are the ones we're worried about."
To combat glitches anticipated from deep within the supply chain, automakers have toll-free phone lines and on-site workshops for suppliers to get Year 2000 advice. In October, the Big Three and the Automotive Industry Action Group launched a task force to provide on-line tips, a database and self-assessment survey (http://www.aiag.org). Workers at 50,000 factories and offices are participating.
But what happens in December 1999 if the automakers identify critical suppliers who haven't debugged their systems? No one knows for sure.
"We're looking at contingency plans and possible swat teams to go in and help out suppliers at the last minute," said George Surdu, program manager for Ford's global Year 2000 project. "At the end of the day, though, the ultimate responsibility is the supplier's."
Rock Tool & Machine Inc. of Plymouth is spending $10,000 to fix its glitches. The company, which designs robots that build transmissions and other parts, has upgraded its Electronic Data Interchange software -- the program that lets suppliers and automakers communicate about what parts they need and when they need them. Rock Tool has also installed 2000-friendly Windows software for some of its equipment monitoring systems.
"The biggest thing that could go wrong is that the date processing information will be incorrect," said Rock Vice President Glenn Simms. "That would not affect distribution, but it could certainly interfere with things."
Asia lags behind
A big worry for the Big Three, who have relied increasingly on foreign suppliers in low-cost markets, is whether Asia is prepared for 2000.
Japan has been in a deep recession for five years or more, and debugging has been a relatively low priority. Throughout Southeast Asia, continuing financial crises might set up a Year 2000 catastrophe that could affect operations ranging from Big Three wire harness making in the Philippines to new assembly lines in Thailand and China.
Another headache for the Big Three and other companies: The bug can strike long before Jan. 1, 2000. If a company's planning horizon is 18 months, for example, the company's software could go haywire in July.
But the glitch isn't all bad. It's forcing outdated companies to modernize. Several automotive companies say the bug forced them to sift through files and discard old software.
"I'm hard-pressed to find a lot of goodness in the Year 2000 issue in terms of shareholder value," Ford's Surdu said.
"But we're replacing some aging systems, and now we have a very detailed inventory -- the most in my 22 years at Ford ...We know exactly what we have, what languages it's written in and which machines it operates on. We can use that information for good reasons unrelated to the Year 2000."
Rachel Konrad can be reached through E-mail at konrad@det-freepress.com or at 1-313-222-5394.
For complete information on cars and trucks, motor sports and the auto industry, visit auto.com.
All content c copyright 1998 Knight-Ridder Inc. and may not be republished without permission.
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