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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (17119)	4/23/1998 12:13:00 PM
From: Death Sphincter	Respond to of 94695

Chip..that one is beyond me, I am just a hack, and try to avoid holding long positions when they conflict with a possible EW corrective wave, or at least hedge. I am still holding some long right now, my guess is that a substantial correction will not begin until after May 5. a profit taking session of a few days starting this afternoon or tomorrow would not surprise me with a 2-3% range. further than that you will need to have one of the other guys answer your longer term convergence inquiry. carl PS...i have never been wrong, honest...........NOT

To: Chip McVickar who wrote (17119)	4/28/1998 12:46:00 AM
From: Bull RidaH	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 94695

PARADIGM SHIFT Today's market action confirmed an alternate read is correct (which happens to be RWS's read). Applying this read, I come to the following conclusions: 1) The Primary Degree Wave (6th degree Wave) that began Nov.13th ended on April 6th at 9:45am. 2) From there, the market completed the A portion of the ABC Corrective phase on April 16th @ 11:50pm. B was then completed April 22nd at 2:40pm. We began C from there, and have probably completed the first wave down of C. 3) A took nearly 8 full trading days to complete, so C will most likely be completed in 8 days, with the maximum duration being 14 days. 4) Since the last completed wave was a 6th degree wave, we are in a 6th degree correction, a very serious affair. Following is a list of every 6th degree correction since 1987: - 10/87 - 35% drop - 8/90 - 20% drop - 7/96 - 12% drop - 4/97 - 13% drop 5) 2 other sizeable corrections were registered since '87, but they were 7th degree corrections. Jan.- Dec. 1994 saw a 10% correction on major indices but much more severe amongst many sectors and stocks. Aug 8th-Nov.13th 1997 saw a 15% correction on major indices but much more severe amongst individual stocks and sectors. 6) The same pattern formation seen on the prior 6th degree corrections since 1987 is present now. It is a variation of a double top pattern. 7) The same projection method I used to analyze these other 6th degree patterns and determine the bottom within 1 to 3 S&P points precisely targets 995.30 on the June S&P, 995 on The SPX Cash, and 7991 on the Dow. Breaking through 1105 on the S&P futures to the downside validated and activated the pattern. It would now take 2 closes above 1105 to invalidate this pattern and its targets. 8) Chip, Addressing your "degree convergence question" We have one more of these 6th degree corrections due later in the year, with a killer 9th degree correction due to begin next year. It will be the second one this century (the first being 1929), capping the Grand Supercycle that began in 1942, and the supercycle that began in 1982. It will probably last 3-5 years and will be interesting to see if it rivals the 86% devastation done by its predecessor. Regards, David P.S. 9% down staring us in the face. Congrats RWS for capturing the first 4% of this move!