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Technology Stocks : INTEL TRADER -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (2589)	4/23/1998 2:22:00 PM
From: Chris	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 11051

All, RE: Today's trad'in: I thought that I would include my reasoning and assumptions along with my trades. Please feel free to pick them apart. TSM (ADR, Taiwan based) Semiconductor foundry Sell 300 TSM @ 24 5/16 (B@ 24 7/16) (77.5) Buy to close 4 TSM Oct 30 puts @ 8 7/8 (376) Net on TSM +396 (by selling march 25 puts @1 1/8 and selling Apr 25 covered calls for 1 1/8) My outlook for semiconductor foundry business was changed by news of slowdown for rest 98. I am bullish on company, best in niche; slightly bearish on stock for near term. Will watch over next few months and look for an entry point. TSM was a great learning experience in call/put writing, and slightly profitable with a six week return of 5.38% (46%annualized) Buy 4 DIS july 115 @ 15 3/8 News: Good earnings, 3-1 stock split, significant share buyback announced Assumptions: DIS has out standing brand recognition and a captive market (any parent with children and a VCR). I decided to play the short term with the intention of buying the 2001 leaps when available. May also consider 2000 leaps. They are releasing another promising movie this summer, and with there partner Pixar (PIXR) they will release BUGS (all computer animated) this fall. They just opened their Animal Kingdom park and now operate a cruise ship. The new release of `Little Mermaid' has slick piece of marketing geared to kids. I am concerned about their price to growth rate, but the synergy of good earnings, outlook, stock split and share buyback said buy now to me. I don't know if my timing was the best, but that is part the experiment. All comments welcome, Chris PS. Assumptions from yesterday buy 5 MSFT Jan99 140 @ 2. Anticipated strong earnings with potential for MS to hold 98 and possible move to 100 today. (now wrong on my part) With the DOJ unlikely to cloud the release of Win98 in June, I think MSFT could be 120 in July. This play is a pure `stock' speculation on my part. I also think Win98 is being downplayed now, and will show very strong sales when released. I've used beta 3 and it is solid, so I know that I will buy it in June/July. PPS I vote for 50/50 INTC/MSFT. That's way I've voted with my money so far at least. This amount was determined by the "use the force" method of investing. "Trust your feelings" said Obi-wan to Luke. I would only add 'then look at the numbers.'

To: MonsieurGonzo who wrote (2589)	4/23/1998 2:35:00 PM
From: Berney	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 11051

Steve, Re: Ride the Lady; Tame The Tiger Okay, since you offered a reasonable change to my hypothesis, I thought I would offer a reasonable alternative to yours <vbg> I contrasted them for the very reason you noted, that their past and future are somewhat dependent (the companies that is). IMO the stock is a different story. In my methodology, one is clearly a reasonable value and one is not. I like to use the example of WMT. Until this past year, investors were underwater from five years before. That's a lot of time to be blowing bubbles. The co did everything they were supposed to do; doubled rev over the 5 years and had annual sequential EPS (again only 1 of 79 in the Index to do that and 1 of 4 in the DJIA). When expectations get above historical and projected performance, IMHO the party will eventually end. But then, we have the future to see if we're right or wrong. That's what makes the game so interesting. Berney