To: Death Sphincter who wrote (2459 ) 4/23/1998 1:42:00 PM From: Matt Webster Respond to of 16960
I've tried to keep up with all the rumors circulating, and the only one I see of any merit is that Intel has a souped up i740 that has near Voodoo performance by cranking the clock speed. The others that focus on Intel moving 3D functions off cards to the motherboard are only speculation. Intel has done this same hatchet job to the price of 3Com and Creative Labs by talking about expanding into the network and audio peripherals. Yet, most of us still have discrete audio and network cards. Anyway, we know Intel's roadmap and there's no serious on-chip 3D acceleration until after Katmai, which means at least mid-1999. By then, 3DFX will have solidified its position with Voodoo2. They will also probably have found a cheap fab to work with, made a partnership with someone big like AMD or IBM, and Banshee and Voodoo3 will be out or near on the horizon. I am a little disappointed that there is so little instutional interest at these levels, but that remains to be seen. It makes sense to let the VC's dump their 3 million shares as fast as possible, then Fidelity or whoever can come in and get the stock cheap. Just trying to remind everyone that Intel's 3D is vaporware. Also, my speculation is that the meeting with Merrill Lynch has something to do with an equity participation deal. I do not think they should be floating any more debt. In my humble opinion, Intel should be expanding its relationship with 3DFX, hoping to set the standard/pace in 3D as well as regular CPU. They could rationalize their 3DLabs venture with 3DFX, where 3DLabs sets the co-processor market, while 3DFX gets the accelerator market. It already owns 5%, why not a bit more? The analogy is Microsoft-Citrix, for those who rode that roller coaster last year. The other alternative is a consolidation with NVidia. There is no point in these two IPO's trying to kill each other, when together they would own the mainstream market. My two cents, Matt