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Gold/Mining/Energy : GOLD-XAU -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (1457)	4/23/1998 11:05:00 PM
From: Jimsy	Respond to of 1756

Jim - Xau & other things today webhome.idirect.com

To: Jim McMannis who wrote (1457)	4/24/1998 3:12:00 AM
From: ahhaha	Respond to of 1756

I sold out all of my clients in January of 1987 and dissolved my investment fund because the UTES cut through the major uptrend. The market corrected but started up again in April. My clients were extremely upset with my poor judgement to pull them out of a great bull market, and I never heard a word from them even after the pseudo crash. It wasn't a crash. The computers just drove the specialist off the floor. My computers measured almost a net positive tick volume for the crash day! Stocks don't have to have any selling going on to drop like rocks. The worst bear market I ever saw was 1969. Far worse than '73-'74, '37, or '82. No one even heard of the '69 blaster. I believe it was the worst of the 20th century. '29 was much like '87. The damage occurred after Apr '30 and was slow and grinding. Plenty of time to exit. Not '69. You just ended up losing big time no matter what you did. I never felt the dollar or interest rates were responsible for the days of horrible weakness before that '87 one day move. They were just coincident and set up the psychology. That's why trying to go back to that era for comparison purposes won't work. We were still in disinflation with great disbelief about FED integrity. Huge long bond inflationary premium. FED erring on the side of restraint in the short market. That's all changed even though there are many hawks on the board now whistling up a tightening. There are many surprising inflation items in the pipe coming to greet us. Oil prices will be rising. The Asian effect will have blown over leaving us with trouble. Many state and federal fees will be rising. COLA will be kicking in. Everything is indexed except for poor people. We are inflation leveraged to the eyeballs and tugboat captains want 50% wage increase. The gradualist strategy the FED will inevitably practice will enable everyone to raise their wages in order to protect themselves from inflation. It'll cause an exponential rise in prices unless the FED raises rates exponentially and busts confidence, a confidence that is now inured with hubris and the ugly side of wealth. It's the "too much can happen" aspect that you mention which I like. It makes the action choppy so that the trend is solid and rewards buying and holding, the easiest and the hardest thing to do in investment. And, the most lucrative. Money money money.