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Technology Stocks : Winstar Comm. (WCII) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jason Cogan who wrote (5403)	4/23/1998 4:26:00 PM
From: TheSlowLane	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12468

Jason, welcome to the thread. If you want to learn about WinStar and really get the answers to your questions, you've come to the right place. If you came here to antagonize people with ill-informed questions, don't be surprised if we don't act like the Welcome Wagon. The answers to your questions are addressed in prior posts on this thread. With all due respect, why don't you read through it first, and then ask some informed questions. A lot of people have put a LOT of effort into addressing these very issues already. Asking them to repeat the effort solely for your benefit, when the information is readily available is a bit much to ask. Cheers.

To: Jason Cogan who wrote (5403)	4/23/1998 4:33:00 PM
From: Steven Bowen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12468

Yes, but when you understand them and they're expected, you don't worry about it. We can look past the few hundred million in losses now looking out ten years when WinStar has projected revenues of over $4 billion and positive EBITDA earnings of about $1.25 billion. Most here realize what an expensive undertaking building a nationwide telecommunication network is. As long as WinStar's management continues to perform, and we have every reason to believe that they are and will, we have every reason to believe this stock will be $200 or $300 within a half dozen years or so. Sorry for being so short, but we get so many stopping by that aren't willing to do any of their own due dilligence or understand WinStar's technology or their competition or their market, and just want to say "why would I buy this stupid company when they're losing money?" If you're seriously interested in WinStar, you'll get more help here than you ever wanted. Sorry, I got interupted before I could hit the submit button and see you've already been answered. But I concur with Paul. There is so much here we could tell you we could spend days. If you have serious questions, you'll get a lot of good answers.

To: Jason Cogan who wrote (5403)	4/23/1998 9:03:00 PM
From: Louis savarese	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12468

I'm no techie by a long shot but to understand WCII on a base level all you need to know is the management. Mr. Bill is on a mission, his team are seasoned vets and guess what? Mr. Bill is the KING of EFFICIENCY and VALUE. Every deal he has made has added more value to the co. than the net cost. This is one great company. Go WinStar!

To: Jason Cogan who wrote (5403)	4/23/1998 9:28:00 PM
From: Bernard Levy	Respond to of 12468

Hi Jason: To use a simple analogy, the economics of CLECs are similar to bridge building: first you build the bridge and it costs a lot of money. When the bridge is built you collect tolls in perpetuity. Of course, you have to do some upkeep, but you have a large and stable source of cash flow. The models which assign a $100 value to WCII rely on giving a present value to the future cash flow stream. The discount factor used by Vogel (Montgomery Securities) in his discounted cash flow analysis is 20%, meaning that $100 in 2005 is worth $80 in 2004, $64 in 2003, $$51 in 2002, $41 in 2001, $33 in 2000, $26 in 1999, and $21 in 1998. This discount factor is rather steep because of all the residual uncertainty about WCII's future competitive posture (competition from TGNT, broadband satellite, fiber-based CLECs, etc...). However, it does not take into account the possibility that WCII will use its dominant position to make some strategic moves (such as moving into the European market) or to discourage future competition (my guess is that recent LMDS auction winners may find it more difficult than they might expect to raise the capital needed for a nationwide rollout; the same comment applies to the broadband satellite constellations). The key feature here is strategic positioning: WCII has lots of bandwidth in all key markets, was the first to rollout services, and has therefore established a dominant position in the fixed broadband wireless sector. Note that the above analysis focuses on the long term. Certainly, WCII could be down to $30 in 2 weeks, or it could be up to $45. Who knows? However, if it is still around 3 years from now, it will be worth significantly more than today. Best wishes, Bernard Levy