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Technology Stocks : American Power Conversion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mike Farrar who wrote (2006)	4/23/1998 5:20:00 PM
From: JeffT	Respond to of 2574

Does anyone have a take on what the market watchers think about these earnings? They seem to be in line with consensus earnings estimates. Hopefully we will not take a bath tomorrow in this stock. Jeff

To: Mike Farrar who wrote (2006)	4/23/1998 5:41:00 PM
From: TobaccoMan	Respond to of 2574

Jeff- Given the fact that you are short APCC, your post is better understood. Message 4179398 Posting scare messages to threads really has no effect on the stock. They met estimates and inventories are expected to increase during the first half of the year as the Q3 & 4 are APCC's best Quarters - thus inv. builds Q1/2 and sells Q3/4. Sequential earnings and revs really don't matter anyway. The Street looks at like Quarters. There might just be a trader sell-off the next few days as the NASDAQ reversed today. But APCC seems to be running a tighter ship and should continue strong throughout the year. Of course, I will eat my words if we see 27 next week. <g> Regards, Tman

To: Mike Farrar who wrote (2006)	4/23/1998 7:57:00 PM
From: JimieA	Respond to of 2574

Also not favorably impressed with APCC's results either. Although earnings were in line with estimates, but some things did not look that good. Although sequential sales growth not important, since business is cyclical. Asset management was lousy in the 1st quarter. I thought APCC was getting a handle on excess inventory and receivable, but not now. Sales decreased by $33 million, receivables increased by $19 million. The Days Sales Outstanding (DSO) has gone from 47 days at 12/31/97 to 62 days at 3/31/98. Inventory also has got out of hand. Increasing $26 million since December. It is a poor excuse that they are buying in the 1st quarter for increased sales in the 3rd and 4th quarters. Someone should get them a book about Just in Time inventory management. Operating income margin going from 18% in 1997 1st quarter to 16% in 1998 was also not a good sign. Operating income was only up 13%, not the 20-25% goal. What helped this quarter, that APCC conveniently did not mention was exchange rate losses in 1997 vs. gains in 1998. Although I have no idea how this will effect the stock price, which I own. I also own ANET, and thought that its' quarter was poor, but stock went up. Good luck

To: Mike Farrar who wrote (2006)	4/23/1998 9:53:00 PM
From: Alan Edgett	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 2574

FRom a Yahoo board...any thoughts? Message Boards Help - Edit Public Profile - Personalize - Sign Out Top:Business and Finance:Stocks:Technology:Electronic Instr and Controls:APCC (American Power Conversion Corp) <- Previous Message 174 of 174 Reply Seasonality in APCC jocurtis (39/M/Toledo, OH) Apr 23 1998 8:10PM EDT When I first looked at the earnings I must admit I had hoped for better but it almost always pays to take a deeper look. In general, I like to see sequential quarter growth in both earnings and sales. I pretty much do not trust analysts and their estimates. Since APCC did not report sequential growth, it helps to understand why... It looks like APCC routinely is seasonly low in their first Q. I am a little puzzled by this since in a network installation business I am associated with, we use exclusively APC and purchase it any time of the year. I don't really sense a seasonal factor other than when warm weather hits everyone seems to want to talk about new projects with me. Anyway, here are the numbers.. From Dec 96 to Mar 97 sales declined from 210 to 172, 18% From Dec 96 to Mar 97 EPS declined from 0.32 to 0.22, 31% Now we have: From Dec 97 to Mar 98 sales declined from 252 to 219, 13% From Dec 97 to Mar 98 EPS declined from 0.39 to 0.28, 28% So this documents the seasonality. A lower March report is to be expected. But the year-to-year comparisons look great across the board. On a seasonly adjusted basis the numbers look good to me since the seasonal decline was not as great as it was last year indicating stronger underlying growth. But I have no idea if the market will think so. The market may have been hoping for more and APCC is just as vulnerable to a general sell-off as any other company. If the market views the numbers as I do, the stock should go up. But the market doesn't always see things the way I do. <g> Can anyone shed more light on why APCC's first Q is seasonly low? Jeff