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Technology Stocks : IFMX - Investment Discussion -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: akidron who wrote (10399)	4/23/1998 6:00:00 PM
From: Mark Finger	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 14631

>>FYI I believe that ifmx will make between 7 and 10 cents this q. and >>50 to 70 cents this year.. I think you are way too optimistic here. That means that they would have to do $80-120M in profits (and I do not believe that they have that much tax losses to carry forward, so before tax values would have to be higher). You would have to be more profitable than was the best under the "cooked" books of Phil, and with less sales. That will even be more difficult because of the change in accounting methods, which make it harder to grow sales quickly. Further, that would have to be after a Q1 and Q2 that will be relatively small. You would be talking about margins the like that IFMX has never done (you would have to do around 20% AFTER TAX--on much larger sales--in Q3 and Q4 to meet that). I think IFMX will be doing well to do half that much. >>wit marginal revenue growth as the was they now amortize contracts >>is worth at least 30c per share.... Can you explain what you mean here and how you derive this value? Mark

To: akidron who wrote (10399)	4/23/1998 7:32:00 PM
From: investorgal	Respond to of 14631

Akidron, I believe your numbers are too agressive. Or maybe I should re-word that, my goals on the stock price, based on estimated earnings, are more conservative. I assume the .30/share you gave is based on the $180m or so of unrealized revenue still on the books. So you are assuming they only use $50m? I think they will use more. But it all doesn't just flow to the profit side. Don't forget the expenses. While I believe they are under control, this is still a large company with alot of fixed expenses. I believe $160m/qtr is a minimum. I am looking for .04-.05/share this quarter. I don't have a full year number. I had originally had a goal of the stock for 12 by year's end. I now think it can be 15 by year's end if the Q1 numbers are good. If I had to pick a 1998 EPS from the dartboard, I would guess .25/share INCLUDING restatement revenue. But, I also look at the emotional value of it too. The market is an emotional mechanism and when people see something they think will be hot, they jump on it. I think IFMX will start to be hot again. IMHO