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Technology Stocks : VALENCE TECHNOLOGY (VLNC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tmoore who wrote (2726)	4/23/1998 9:40:00 PM
From: wm sharp	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 27311

Your question is, as you say, a good one. However, we need to consider whether the assumptions made in generating this magical chart are valid in this case. When the bone rollers begin their incantations, any chart can be made to say anything. These computer models do not often apply to special situations, e.g. start-up ventures, or thinly traded issues, or those with large insider holdings. The proverbial "black box" cannot be counted on. What we do know is that the number of mutual funds holding VLNC (as reported by IBD) has increased significantly over the last year, and has increased over recent months as well. The number of funds has held at 15 over recent weeks; it has not decreased. Does this suggest "accumulation" or "distribution"? Depends on how some shaman decides to define the terms. We also know that there have been several "shakeouts" since November - margin related, tax loss related, or simply due to fear, impatience, or lack of information. During these shakeouts, I've noticed solid intraday support - someone feeding the bid size quietly. This suggests to me that buyers have repeatedly stepped in - as inconspicuously as possible - to take shares off the hands of the panicking mob. As easy as it may be to question my observations, I'd say they're at least as valid as some chartist's "universally" applicable program. If my observations just happen to be correct, then there are significantly fewer small VLNC shareholders out there now. More important, the large shareholders (holding as much as 75% of the meager outstanding by my rough calculations) will be in complete control of the supply/demand equation when production is announced and everyone suddenly wants a piece of the next battery generation.

To: Tmoore who wrote (2726)	4/23/1998 9:46:00 PM
From: Tmoore	Respond to of 27311

Re-thinking what I posted. How could anyone apply TA to a development stage company? Wouldn't you would need historical data over many years to be conclusive. It seems way to early in the life of VLNC to be able to make such distinctions from a statistical point of view. One thing that would blow the whole TA scenario away is a announcement from the company that production is still on schedule for June 30th. Still long, Tmoore

To: Tmoore who wrote (2726)	4/23/1998 11:49:00 PM
From: Gordon Quickstad	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 27311

First of all, thanks for that link - it's pretty useful. I read your own reply to yourself and wmsharp's and they're both plausible to me. My 2› worth is that I believe accumulation is supposed to measure up volume against down volume and indicate if there is upward/downward pressure on the stock. It may be that when there is selling it is the undisciplined who are selling at market or dips, causing larger drops on selling volume than would be caused by a more carefully executed sell program. Likewise, when there is buying, if a professional is watching a screen all day over several days and buying on dips and at limits, this activity wouldn't raise the price as much as a more undisciplined public approach to buying. If there is any validity to this then wmsharp's surmise that it could get very hard to find extra shares for Joe Public when good news is released could make it very interesting.