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To: Lucretius who wrote (20194)	4/23/1998 7:48:00 PM
From: William L. Oppenheim	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Disasters can, do and will happen. If you predict them often enough you will eventually be correct and brilliant in the minds of the majority who didn't 'see it coming,' but predicting these types of events is pretty fluky. Most pundits know that you are only as good as your last good prediction, that few remember the inaccuracies over time, and that sooner or later you will be correct. It is all a matter of timing, and with the exception of moving averages, very little timing accuracy has been documented. I may not have seen or appreciated your post last night--would you relist a few of the red flashing signals you and all your friends seem to be getting. Most of the earnings estimates seem to be right on, and many institutional types seem to be recommending the sector again. Is yours a contrarian opinion for its own sake.