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Strategies & Market Trends : Precious Metals mutual funds (gold, silver, PGMs) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Richard Mazzarella who wrote (149)	4/23/1998 10:40:00 PM
From: Dan P	Respond to of 972

Richard: I took the liberty of posting this here, which I have also posted on the gold monitor thread. I see some interesting technical events in gold, XAU, and the gold stocks. In gold and the XAU, looking at them from the weekly close basis, a short term moving average (10 week) had been trending lower and below the 40 week moving average, SINCE JULY 1996. This has already changed in a few leading gold stocks, e.g. Barrick and is about to happen to gold (basis london gold closing price weekly), and to the XAU. I.e, the 10 week moving average has in some cases crossed above the 40 week averages, and is about to do so for gold and the XAU, if gold and the XAU continue to rally for a short time. This is reminiscent of the rally in March 1993, the last really significant rally in gold, XAU and the gold stocks. Also, the moving averages have flattened out and are turning positive. While we might see a short term correction, it seems to me that we have witnessed a major event. ************** In addition, in Investor's business daily, for year to date, the gold funds are up about 20 % , with technology 24% for the same period. I suspect that the gold funds are about to lead the parade, and I have been back in them for a few days. With the technical action occuring (as described above), in 1993 the gold stocks and funds took off and within 3-4 months most had gains of 50-75 % from their base. I see this happening again. We need a few more days of positive action on both gold and the XAU. It is a amazing to me, though, that in restrospect, I should have been out of the gold market since July 1996!!! At least for the major producers and the XAU. It should have been obvious. Cheers Dan

To: Richard Mazzarella who wrote (149)	4/24/1998 11:42:00 AM
From: Dan P	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 972

Richard and others: I noticed today that the gold funds are now the leading sector in the year-to-date appreciation of sector funds (Investor's Business Daily), and in today's paper, several gold funds are at the top of the heap for their 4 and 8 week ranking, respectively. This includes all other types funds. Also, many of the gold funds are near the top for the 16 week rankings in performance. For example, 4 week perfor- mance ranges from 15-20 %, 8 week from 26-31 % and 16 week from 23-29 %. Year to date, the average gold fund is up around 20 %, eclipsing the technology sector for the first time this year. In the past, meaningful rallies have featured such performance, although by the time the gold funds let the parade for 39 weeks or more, the rally was over. True it was possible in 1993 to have major producers and gold stock funds double or more, but that was about it, especially since gold didn't do much except mostly go sideways. How significant the current rally is of course depends on where bullion goes. My expectation is that we will continue to see a rally in gold into late 1998 and possibly into 1999, and the stocks and funds should follow. I am hoping for 100 % + gains in the funds over that time period. Cheers Dan