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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: jtechkid who wrote (18989)	4/23/1998 11:18:00 PM
From: Chuck Williams	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Yea, I have to agree. The mantra is BULL (read that as you will).

To: jtechkid who wrote (18989)	4/24/1998 8:31:00 PM
From: 16yearcycle	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Kid, It is hard to interpret your writing, but here is my post from Jan.23: ___________________________________________________________- To: +Teri Skogerboe (14997 ) From: +Eugene Kearney Friday, Jan 23 1998 3:37PM ET Reply # of 19001 Teri, The dow e around 420 in '97, for a trailing pe of 18.3. If e are flat this year, currently projected at 465-470, what can the downside be with rates so low? Dow 7000 is a pe of 16.6. Dow 6500 is a pe of 15.4. At the same time, is a pe of 20, with falling e, and rates so low, out of line? Coming out of down earings in last recessions, pe's go up anticipating growing e. So perhaps things should adjust down now, but later this year when e accelerate, pe's should go up. A dow 9240 at this time next year is not out of line.( 420 x 22 ) My take on the Dauvin quote is that he thinks that the undercapacity may occur this year, and then may continue into 1999-2000. ------------------------------------------------------------ Well, we already approached 9240. I am posting this because 7000 would take the market from stupid high to stupid low. My guess in Jan that e would only be about 420, 10% lower than expected, is holding up. 7000 is much too low in this environment. I expect that the fed will raise rates to slow this momentum down, unless we have a pullback to below 8500 before July 1. The fed will feel as if they can do this since asia is simply NOT having a terrific effect on our economy. Yes, I believe the fed is concerned with equity inflation. They better be. I am experiencing the effects of low unemployment frst hand, as I am having an unbelievably difficult time finding someone to fill a RECEPTION job in my office. I have never seen this in 15 years. Had to raise everyone's income to pull the new person in, and be fair to existing staff. So, dow 7000 is silly, a pe of ~17 with low inflation and low interest rates, and mountains of money pouring in from boomers trained to buy on dips. A 7000 DOW WOULD CAUSE THE COMPOUNDING RETURN FROM 10/87 TO NOW TO BE ~12%! 8600 is a pe of 20, which is a probably about right. Either the market will get there on its own, or the fed will shove it in that direction. ~9000 at year end is not so obscene, especially if we can expect a pickup in worldwide growth sometime in 99, as asia recovers a bit.