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Gold/Mining/Energy : Alta Gold -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Bruce McGaughey who wrote (589)	4/26/1998 2:43:00 PM
From: ahhaha	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 749

It's the nature of a good bull move to induce this tendency to look down. You look at the XAU chart and you say, "it's gotta correct. Overextended." Let's say it starts down. Then you watch and say,"Yeah, it was just a bloop up, should retrace 50%". And you feel comfortable with it going down with no interest in getting aboard. If you're long, you regret holding and wish you had sold earlier. You even start looking at all the bearish reasons why this play can't work. As it edges down you become despondent and either stop watching or sell out. Then it starts up again. You never look at the corrections as a buying opportunity. You look down all the way up and start looking up at the top. Then you look up all the way down and the above process reverses. The XAU has recently completed a sixth count EW pattern completion. The last three days show a sceptic ridden move up. Few believe it will be sustained. Most believe we'll go down for an extended correction. You have this view in you, do you not? It's easier to be a doubter. In most gold stocks, selling intensity, selling mass, and persistence, aren't causing downside price progression, but the upside is very sensitive to marginal demand. The environment is such that the stocks are sold out. All the sellers are long gone. There are few believers. The story is too vague unless you have a comprehension of humanity that transcends stylishness. This psychology enforces itself instantaneously on price, so the market fully corrects itself immediately. Sometimes people refer to this as the path of least resistance. The XAU chart shows that since 1/12/98 we have up and down, a few days advance and a few days of correction. The moves are net positive. It's "rising buttums" as this wag from the disappeared FNN used to say. What's interesting is that it's hard to buy the dips, even for me. That's bull market psychology. As long as the state of marginal demand exceeding marginal supply exists, this move since January will not be merely an extended major 6 count EW consolidation before a breakdown to new lows. My tick volume every trade measure of many gold stocks and the analytical algorithms I've developed over 20 years show the most remarkable positive state of accumulation I've ever measured. It's as though selling causes price to rise by instantaneously probing down into a reservoir of pure liquidity and reacts instantaneously up into illiquid price regimes higher than than that price at which the probe began. There are no bids below in the book, but small sales and ensuing price decline bring money out of the woodwork that hits the market in the form of market order to buy. When the price advances, there are few booked orders above to sell, so the ask advances faster to cool the price move. Then marginal selling comes in to "get out at this favorable price". The process repeats. In this environment you just have to go in and buy now. Hope you buy at a near term top. When you're buying tops, you're succeeding. When you're waiting for pullbacks, you aren't. Because when you try to buy the pullback, you end up buying a near term top. The point is to be a buyer and not a watcher.