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Technology Stocks : Semi-Equips - Buy when BLOOD is running in the streets! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Joe Dancy who wrote (5209)	4/24/1998 4:52:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10921

Does anyone have a sense that the large reductions in INTC, MOT and PC related semi spending for cap-exp spending is not yet reflected in the semi-equip BTB? I think INTC has reduced from 6.3b or 6b to something around 4.5 - 5b now and MOT is down around .5 b for this year. Similarly some non PC companies - VLSI is down 20% to .18 b from .22b. ROK spending down but I will have to check. True the above are mitigated by some other companies' not reducing. But since the driver is the memory segment and the PC segments my feeling is that there is a lot of weak news left in the semi-equips? Though recent BTB of 0.80 may have been an aberration, I think we will almost definitely see under 0.75 this year (and I actually am giving the semi-equips the benefit of the doubt here - actually suspect this number could be taken down to 0.68 or so this summer but that is too cruel (and expensive) so I won't.) Any comments? Shane.