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Technology Stocks : Apple Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Eric Yang who wrote (12153)4/24/1998 12:39:00 PM
From: soup  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 213176
 
Seminar Simulcast of New Apple Products Hosted by Steve Jobs on May 11 11:30 - 3:00PM EST.

New York City location at the UA Theater on 64 St. & 2nd Ave.

seminars.apple.com

Just picked up some May $27 1/2 calls @ 1 5/8. If Jobs sees fit to rent out movie theaters across the country for a *3 hour* presentation, it has got to be something real good.

The speculation alone should send AAPL past $30.

I'm such a whore.

soup



To: Eric Yang who wrote (12153)4/24/1998 1:20:00 PM
From: soup  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 213176
 
The Beast That Devoured My Portfolio.

Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the (Apple) Bom. (Apologies to Ian.)

Under the heading of problems we all should have, AAPL has taken over/destroyed my portfolio allocation model.

What began this year as a modest 5% position in AAPL 1/99 $20 LEAPS allocated to my domestic value sector has grown to more than 18% -- and threatening to go higher.

Since I'm allocating only a *total 15%* to domestic value and don't want to sell my mutual funds (I'm obsessive about this stuff) and don't want to classify my AAPL position "off-portfolio", I had to come up with an idea (rationalization) so that I don't have sell off my AAPL holdings (my best story) in order in keep things neat and not subject myself to the risk of an *undiversified* portfolio. :O

FYI, my allocation model is this:
15% Domestic Value
30% Domestic Growth
24% Europe
16% Emerging Markets and Others
05% Japan
10% Cash

So, I came up with this: AAPL revenues are worldwide. As such its stock price is in large a reflection of different geographic economies. Asia slumping, Japan looking to stimulate the economy, Europe investing in productivity, etc. AAPL is a global play as much as anything else.

Looking at notes of the last AAPL shareholder's meeting, I got the following revenue numbers:

1,406M/100% total
$751M/53.4% US
$343M/24.3% Europe
$191M/13.5% Japan
$121M/08.6% Asia + Other

I also figure that AAPL has half-migrated itself from a pure value play at $13 1/2 to an earnings growth story at $28.

So, smooshing/rounding the numbers, I came up with the following way to allocate AAPL:

27.5% Domestic Value
27.5% Domestic Growth
25.0% Europe
07.5% Emerging Markets and Others
12.5% Japan

(I know AAPL has a lot of cash on the books but, I don't think they'll let me have easy access to it, so I didn't include it in cash.)

I think this approach has some integrity. As the economic health/currencies of these regions go, so too will AAPL -- which is kind of the point of diversification.

This way, for better or worse, my precious allocation model should stay fairly stable.

soup

PS> Am I the only one on this thread who worries about this stuff?



To: Eric Yang who wrote (12153)4/24/1998 2:22:00 PM
From: Ariosto  Respond to of 213176
 
Hi Eric, Phil, Ian, and All,

Sorry for butting in.

This is my first post here , and have been around since January. Thanks for the insights and intelligence.

Have you been to Apple Recon today? Lot's of stuff.

Ariosto



To: Eric Yang who wrote (12153)4/25/1998 12:58:00 AM
From: WebDrone  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 213176
 
Apple Short Interest down 565,477 shares to 14,443,385;

from 4/24 WSJournal on-line article

By the way, I sold out today, looking to re-enter in the $26's. I 've played this game for a few bucks a few times.

Still long,
Richard