To: Eric Yang who wrote (12153 ) 4/24/1998 1:20:00 PM From: soup Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 213176
The Beast That Devoured My Portfolio. Or How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the (Apple) Bom. (Apologies to Ian.) Under the heading of problems we all should have, AAPL has taken over/destroyed my portfolio allocation model. What began this year as a modest 5% position in AAPL 1/99 $20 LEAPS allocated to my domestic value sector has grown to more than 18% -- and threatening to go higher. Since I'm allocating only a *total 15%* to domestic value and don't want to sell my mutual funds (I'm obsessive about this stuff) and don't want to classify my AAPL position "off-portfolio", I had to come up with an idea (rationalization) so that I don't have sell off my AAPL holdings (my best story) in order in keep things neat and not subject myself to the risk of an *undiversified* portfolio. :O FYI, my allocation model is this: 15% Domestic Value 30% Domestic Growth 24% Europe 16% Emerging Markets and Others 05% Japan 10% Cash So, I came up with this: AAPL revenues are worldwide. As such its stock price is in large a reflection of different geographic economies. Asia slumping, Japan looking to stimulate the economy, Europe investing in productivity, etc. AAPL is a global play as much as anything else. Looking at notes of the last AAPL shareholder's meeting, I got the following revenue numbers: 1,406M/100% total $751M/53.4% US $343M/24.3% Europe $191M/13.5% Japan $121M/08.6% Asia + Other I also figure that AAPL has half-migrated itself from a pure value play at $13 1/2 to an earnings growth story at $28. So, smooshing/rounding the numbers, I came up with the following way to allocate AAPL: 27.5% Domestic Value 27.5% Domestic Growth 25.0% Europe 07.5% Emerging Markets and Others 12.5% Japan (I know AAPL has a lot of cash on the books but, I don't think they'll let me have easy access to it, so I didn't include it in cash.) I think this approach has some integrity. As the economic health/currencies of these regions go, so too will AAPL -- which is kind of the point of diversification. This way, for better or worse, my precious allocation model should stay fairly stable. soup PS> Am I the only one on this thread who worries about this stuff?