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Strategies & Market Trends : How To Write Covered Calls - An Ongoing Real Case Study! -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Herm who wrote (7356)4/24/1998 5:56:00 PM
From: SeaViewer  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14162
 
<I might be able to exercise my 5 CALLs for the June 15s real soon! 500 more shares of VVUS at $15 by mid week at this pace!>

Herm, why are you going to exercise your calls? Those June 15 calls have time and volatility premiums. You can always sell your calls and at the same time buy the stocks if you want them.

Jeff



To: Herm who wrote (7356)4/25/1998 12:00:00 PM
From: rkf  Respond to of 14162
 
Thanks Herm, here's a late news bit that is interesting.
Kent

By Mark Egan
LOS ANGELES, April 23 (Reuters) - Shares of drug maker
Vivus Inc. rose more than 43 percent on Thursday on hopes its
treatment for impotence could benefit from the highly
publicized introduction of Pfizer Inc.'s rival drug Viagra.
Vivus stock closed $3.50 higher at $11.50 on volume of more
than 14 million shares on Nasdaq, where it was one of the most
actively traded issues, after positive comments from a Wall
Street analyst.
Wole Fayemi of Cruttenden Roth Thursday raised his rating
on Vivus to strong buy from neutral and set a 1998 price target
on the stock of $23 a share based on the belief that Vivus
(NASDAQ:VVUS) will benefit from the launch of Viagra by Pfizer
(NYSE:PFE).
"The introduction of an oral treatment (Viagra) and the
publicity surrounding it should dramatically increase the
number of men seeking treatment for erectile dysfunction,"
Fayemi wrote in his research brief. "We believe that all
companies with impotence products, especially Vivus, are likely
to benefit from the introduction of Viagra."
Vivus makes MUSE. The product comes with an applicator that
is inserted into the tip of the penis and it discharges a
pellet that delivers a drug that brings on an erection within
five to 10 minutes and lasts for up to an hour.
Fayemi said that there may be safety and efficacy issues
that will limit the patient base for Viagra. He added that the
drug was only effective in about 50 percent of those suffering
erectile dysfunction.
He said Vivus was well positioned to serve those patients
with more severe erectile dysfunction who may find Viagra
ineffective.
PaineWebber analyst Charles Olsziewski echoed Fayemi's
sentiments.
"Viagra is not going to work for every patient that tries
it," Olsziewski said in an interview. "This oral medication has
not been shown in clinical trails to be effective with patients
with moderate to severe erectile dysfunction."
Analysts said Viagra works best with patients with a milder
problem while Vivus's MUSE works better on those with a more
severe problem.
Viagra, launched two weeks ago, sells for $10 a pill and is
on its way to becoming one of the fastest-selling drugs in
history.
As many as 20 million American men between the ages of 40
and 70 are thought to suffer from impotence, but less than 10
percent of those are actively being treated.
"(Viagra) has heightened awareness, and Vivus can ride the
coattails and benefit when those patients who cannot use the
Viagra pill look for other options,' Olsziewski said.
In 1997 about 2.7 million patients went to doctors for
sexual dysfunctions, up more than 17 percent from the prior
year, giving an indication that the taboo of admitting to a
sexual dysfunction was subsiding.
"It's one of those classic situations, much like
incontinence was several years ago," Olsziewski said. "It's a
closet issue. No one wants to admit they are impotent, there's
the virility issue and the vanity side of it. Now we're seeing
people beginning to come out of the closet."



To: Herm who wrote (7356)4/28/1998 3:05:00 PM
From: FruJu  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 14162
 
Hi Herm

It looks like VVUS is drifting back down again.

I'm in VVUS as well; bought 500 earlier in the year at 12 1/2, and broke my cardinal rule of buy-writing. Watched in horror as it drifted down to 7 1/2 last week, without any CC protection. Luckily, we got the analyst upgrade, and it shot up to 13 1/2, at which point I sold May 12.5 Calls at 1 3/4.

Now, I see the May 12.5 calls are trading as low as 1/2 again (as VVUS drops to under 12).

What would be your plan of action here?

My first thought is to cover, and roll down to May 10 CALLs, but I guess this depends on your philosophy of where the stock is going.

Here's my rationale. Given the recent history on this (and seeing as the news between now and May is likely to be more of the same - i.e. Viagra selling in record numbers, MUSE scripts down), I'm betting on a gradual decline below 10 again.

The certification in the UK of the new plant provided only a temporary blip (1 point or so) when it happened last month, so I don't foresee FDA certification having a big impact.

I think this stock will only turn around if the supposed "coattail" effect comes to light, and I doubt that will happen for another 3 months or so.

Your thoughts?

E>