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Biotech / Medical : VD's Model Portfolio & Discussion Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (4761)	4/24/1998 5:12:00 PM
From: ok	Respond to of 9719

You might add AGPH to the list of frequent targets by Barron's ok

To: scaram(o)uche who wrote (4761)	4/24/1998 5:48:00 PM
From: Biomaven	Respond to of 9719

Rick/V1/Rman, At some point I glanced through the advisory committee transcript for the ORG product. You can find it at: fda.gov (it's in the second half of the very large PDF file). My conclusions: No statistical significance vs. normal compression treatment for diabetic leg ulcers. However, for ulcers > 1 year there was significance. This group was not prospectively defined. Despite this, all the panel thought that it worked, with labelling saying significance only for > 1 year ulcers. The 5-4 vote was deceptive, because all that the dissenters wanted was a post-marketing study to confirm no increase in infections. (There were a few more infections in the study). So my guess is that it will get approval, and will probably pop some on approval. How big the market is, I'm not sure. The only statistic I've seen is that 2 million (of 16 million) diabetics will get a leg ulcer "in their lifetime." Competition from Regranex (J&J) (a growth factor) and Dermagraft (ATIS). Also sounds like expensive stuff to make, with a short (5 day) life. The right time to short was clearly earlier today, when it was at 47 <G>. Assuming you missed that brief moment, it might be safer to wait until the split is out of the way. Buying some June puts might be a good way to play this. An alternate plan is to short on approval. Peter