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To: dougjn who wrote (3927)4/24/1998 5:56:00 PM
From: Gary Wisdom  Respond to of 93625
 
Re: <<There are always exactly as many actual sellers as there are actual buyers.>>

Most of what you say here is correct, except:

<<You will notice that if a pattern develops on one side or the other, the price will keep moving in that direction. It stays put if it alternates. Generally.>>

I have been watching this stock non-stop tick by tick for at least 8 straight days (since Black Wednesday).

There are only two types of investors selling now:

1. Very small retail investors getting scared out.
2. The market makers are selling between themselves to push the price down.

If you look at the chart, you'll see several 15 minute intervals the past eight days when the stock is pushed down heavily. And, then it stays there the rest of the day.

Today, the bid stayed at $42 1/8 almost all day. Yet the bid went as high as $42 1/2. The bid never went up (with very few exceptions).

Basically, the market makers were just waiting all day for people to sell. Even when they scooped up lots of shares at 1/2, they never raised the bid.

This pattern has occurred this entire week.

Volume was 200K today and the stock traded in a 1/2 point range all day.

IMHO, as long as the market doesn't tank next week, this is the bottom.

There's no more big sellers willing to give up shares under $42. Of course, a 30 point down day on the Nasdaq could possibly shoot this theory to hell.

<ggg>