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Technology Stocks : Winstar Comm. (WCII) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jason Cogan who wrote (5442)	4/25/1998 6:33:00 AM
From: TheSlowLane	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12468

If you are not long or short on WinStar, then I have to wonder about your agenda. What interest do you have in coming over here to seed doubts about WinStar? Clearly you know enough to raise some interesting questions, but not enough to understand that the rest of us have done some research and have good reasons for believing that this is going a lot higher. Definitely an upgrade from the Finkster, at least in the ettiquette department, but a little thin on depth to my tastes.

To: Jason Cogan who wrote (5442)	4/25/1998 9:18:00 AM
From: pkwknk	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12468

..you are a moronic, half truthing double talker...either you have yor head up your behind, or you realize within the not too distant future clec rev will be 80-90% of wcii revs...get lost or say something that approachs intelligent...you are a bore...

To: Jason Cogan who wrote (5442)	4/25/1998 9:49:00 AM
From: Steven Bowen	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12468

Jason, just in case you really don't know, here how WInStar's revenue is projected to grow (Vogel's numbers, in millions): 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Telecom 38 227 691 1184 1738 2340 3004 3729 4518 5393 New Med 41 56 60 65 70 75 82 88 95 103 Total 79 283 751 1248 1808 2415 3086 3817 4613 5496 Now, since you think $100M is a reasonable number for the value of New Media, what value would give the Telecom business. I'll add the numbers up for you; over the next ten years, WinStar is projected to generate $30.0 billion in revenues. New Media is projected to generate only 0.8 billion of this, the telecom business the other $29.2 billion. So new media is responsible for only 2.7% of revenues. I'll let you figure out the growth rates, but I'll give you a hint; telecom will blow away new media. Also look at margins; in ten years WinStar will have approx 70% of their buildings on-net, meaning they will be earning margins of approx 65%. Or probably triple the New Media division. So, in New Media, we have a division generating only about 2% of the revenue, growing much slower, and earning much lower margins. By your admission, if this division is fairly priced at $100 million, you tell us the value of the rest. I'll give you a hint, I'd start somewhere around $5.0 billion, or in the neighborhood of $150 per share.

To: Jason Cogan who wrote (5442)	4/25/1998 3:13:00 PM
From: MangoBoy	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 12468

<< Winstar just sold off 10% of this division, proving that they are desperate for cash and looking to alternative methods of financing. >> Rouhana said that WinStar New Media was reponsible for it's own P&L and for raising its own capital. the $10M will be on the subsidiary's books only, as i understand it. Using your arguments about indebtedness and positive earnings, you could come to the conclusion that none of Craig McCaw's businesses would ever succeed and that they would be 'bad' investments too. mark