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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (17266)	4/26/1998 9:41:00 AM
From: P.Prazeres	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 94695

Bill, Why I was screaming "all cash" on Wednesday night. 1. Insider selling on some of the very large caps picked up considerably in Feb and March. 2. The internet stocks bubble appeared to be popping (and it did by Friday) 3. The new lows on the NYSE are creeping up and on Friday was at 34, thurs at 35, wed at 30 but only 18 on Monday. 4. At the same time the new highs has contracted to oinly 50 on Friday. 5. Up volume has dried up . Down volume is overwhelming. 6. NYSE tick was regularly less than -1000 intraday only to come back to poisitive at the end to show a "closing strength" on the evening financial shows. 7. Investor sentiment was at the levels experienced at the peak last year. 8. The elves on WSW is at +6 , I believe. That is one of the best contrarian indicators there is. 9. Many of the charts on the large caps seem to have topped out. Ex.,GE, KO, G. Especially G. I mentioned it and its massive insider sales on Wednesday. It's down 4 from there and I imagine there is more to some. Expect the shoe to drop this week. Initial support at the 50 day MA and ultimate support at the 200 day MA. I wouldn't be surprised to see a -200 or -300 day in the Dow this week. I still like the oil drillers and energy stocks. Pick the leaders in each group and stay away form the dogs of the group. About a month ago I was recommending to get into cash with any further strenth. The dow is up about 200 points from that point. Of course , the ultimate question is , "IS this the beginning of a correction or of something bigger?" I'm sticking with the corerection scenario. Interest rates are still low, profits are expected to grow over the coming year and maybe the 1st quarter's 1% profit growth as compared to last year's 1st quarter will be the worst of it. Paulo